Match Info

Premier League - Second stage - Play Out - Round 30

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Gozo Stadium (Gozo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Malta	TVM Sport+


	Paola Hibernians		Birkirkara

	1	X	2
	2.68	3.1	2.4	Watch
	2.83	3.25	2.34
	2.62	3.31	2.48	Watch
	2.75	3	2.4
	2.87	3.14	2.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.75 ↑ (2.52)	3.16 ↓ (3.45)	2.38 ↓ (2.47)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 8.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Paola Hibernians
33.1%

Draw
28.8%

Birkirkara
38.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36.4%

26.5%

37.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.5%

25.7%

36%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Paola Hibernians has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Birkirkara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Paola Hibernians than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birkirkara than the current prediction. (-2.1%)

Paola Hibernians - Birkirkara Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Branescu L. (G) 4. Alfred S. 6. Caruana L. 96. Charleston 27. Cleiton 11. Kristensen B. 9. Miullen 41. Norenkov D. 44. Pedrao 5. Shaw K. 14. Xuereb D.	1. Martinez M. (G) 33. Acheampong G. 22. Busuttil J. 27. Coppola A. (C) 77. Garzia A. 24. Lacunza L. 11. Macula 59. Makoma D. 25. Micallef N. 41. Roni Santos 7. Sasere F.
Substitutes
18. Abela L. 99. Akinbule S. 20. Debattista M. 10. Degabriele J. . Diakite 23. Ellul M. 17. Hernandez R. 15. Lima M. 19. Muscat D. 30. Sacco H. (G) 13. Zammit A.	99. Bayo J. 19. Cortis S. (G) 8. Delicata L. 10. Dimech S. 16. El Hazawi D. (G) 17. Fenech K. 2. Lopez F. 23. Magri S. 3. Morello M. 14. Pullicino D. 9. Reid K.
Coaches
Agius A.	Zammit P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
12', Roni Santos 🟨,
19', Caruana L. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Roni Santos ↓, Morello M. ↑,
46', 🟨,
46', Miullen 🟨,
67', Caruana L. ↓, Lima M. ↑,
68', Sasere F. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,
68', Busuttil J. ↓, Reid K. ↑,
81', Alfred S. ↓, Diakite ↑,
85', Macula ↓, Bayo J. ↑,
90+2', Bayo J. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Hibernians won 3.

Both teams are struggling and far from their best.

Hibernians may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Hibernians has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Hibernians won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 24:33. (average 1.2:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Hibernians won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 10:12. (average 1.1:1.3).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Birkirkara	6	3	1	2	9:4	5	10
10	Hibernians	6	1	2	3	4:9	-5	5

Last Results with these Odds

Paola Hibernians - the odds 2.52 are the expected chance of winning is 36.36%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Paola Hibernians
Maltese Premier League
14.04.26	Tarxien Rainbows - Paola Hibernians	3:2 ✺
10.04.26	Sliema Wanderers - Paola Hibernians	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Naxxar Lions - Paola Hibernians	2:1 ✺
07.03.26	Gżira United - Paola Hibernians	1:0 ✺
28.02.26	Paola Hibernians - Valletta	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 LTLLT
- Birkirkara FC
Maltese Premier League
14.04.26	Sliema Wanderers - Birkirkara	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Birkirkara - Żabbar St. Patrick	1:0 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
04.04.26	Valletta - Birkirkara	3:1 ✺
Maltese Premier League
14.03.26	Birkirkara - Floriana	2:2 ✺
08.03.26	Hamrun Spartans - Birkirkara	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 LWLTL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Premier League
18.01.26	Birkirkara - Paola Hibernians	3:0
13.09.25	Paola Hibernians - Birkirkara	2:1
Maltese FA Trophy
18.05.25	Birkirkara - Paola Hibernians	1:2
Maltese Premier League
01.03.25	Birkirkara - Paola Hibernians	2:0
14.12.24	Birkirkara - Paola Hibernians	0:2
14.09.24	Paola Hibernians - Birkirkara	0:2
17.02.24	Birkirkara - Paola Hibernians	1:1

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