Match Info

Date: 16 October 2021, Saturday 🏁 Finished


	Birmingham City U23		Aston Villa U23

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Birmingham City U23
27.2%

Draw
23.7%

Aston Villa U23
49.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

37.7%

24.9%

37.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

28.8%

19%

52.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Birmingham City U23 has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Birmingham City U23's form might have worsened.

Aston Villa U23 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Aston Villa U23's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Birmingham City U23 than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Aston Villa U23 than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 12 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Premier League 2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs)).

Birmingham U23 is in awful shape (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Aston Villa U23 is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Aston Villa U23 could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Aston Villa U23 will have a small advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Birmingham City U23
English Premier League Cup
11.10.21	Newcastle Utd U23 - Birmingham City U23	4:0 ✺
English Premier League 2
04.10.21	Reading U23 - Birmingham City U23	1:1 ✺
27.09.21	Birmingham City U23 - Southampton U23	3:2 ✺
20.09.21	Nottingham Forest U23 - Birmingham City U23	5:0 ✺
English Premier League Cup
15.09.21	Birmingham City U23 - Huddersfield Town U23	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 LTWLL
- Aston Villa U23
English Premier League 2
01.10.21	Aston Villa U23 - Wolverhampton U23	0:0 ✺
27.09.21	Stoke City U23 - Aston Villa U23	0:8 ✺
17.09.21	Aston Villa U23 - West Bromwich Albion U23	4:2 ✺
10.09.21	Norwich City U23 - Aston Villa U23	4:2 ✺
27.08.21	Aston Villa U23 - Fulham U23	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 TWWLT

Birmingham City U23 - Aston Villa U23