Match Info

Challenge League - Promotion Group - Round 1

Date: 22 February 2026, Sunday

Location: Victor Tedesco Stadium (Hamrun)


	Birżebbuġa St. Peters		Fgura United

	1	X	2
	1.92	3.35	3.4	Watch
	1.93	3.46	3.48	Watch
	1.91	3.1	3.5
	1.93	3.34	3.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.92 ↑ (1.89)	3.31 ↓ (3.52)	3.48 ↑ (3.43)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Birżebbuġa St. Peters
46.9%

Draw
27.2%

Fgura United
25.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

25.7%

26.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.7%

22.4%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Birżebbuġa St. Peters has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

Fgura United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birżebbuġa St. Peters than the current prediction. (-5.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Birżebbuġa St. Peters that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Fgura United than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Fgura United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
3', 1 - 0, Alex Bruno (Penalty Awarded),
23', 2 - 0, Mosquera T. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', 3 - 0, Agius L. ⚽,
90+2', 3 - 1, ⚽,
90+4', 🟥,

Preview

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Fgura may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, the opponents have had a series of away games.

Birżebbuġa will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Birżebbuġa won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Fgura	2	1	1	0	5:1	4	4

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Birżebbuġa St. Peters
Maltese Challenge League
14.02.26	Żebbuġ Rangers - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	0:3 ✺
07.02.26	Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Santa Lucia	0:1 ✺
01.02.26	Balzan - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	3:0 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
27.01.26	Żurrieq - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	3:0 ✺
Maltese Challenge League
17.01.26	Vittoriosa Stars - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.2 WLLLT
- Fgura United
Maltese Challenge League
15.02.26	Swieqi United - Fgura United	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Mġarr United - Fgura United	2:4 ✺
01.02.26	Fgura United - Sirens	1:5 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
27.01.26	Hamrun Spartans - Fgura United	5:0 ✺
Maltese Challenge League
18.01.26	Pietà Hotspurs - Fgura United	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.2 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

Maltese Challenge League
23.11.25	Fgura United - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	0:3

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