Match Info

Challenge League - Round 14

Date: 7 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Victor Tedesco Stadium (Hamrun)


	Birżebbuġa St. Peters		Santa Lucia

	1	X	2
	1.62	3.6	4.65
	1.63	3.67	4.51
	1.62	3.91	4.54	Watch
	1.62	3.3	4.8
	1.59	3.68	4.98
	1.61	3.6	4.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.62 ↓ (1.69)	3.63 ↓ (3.88)	4.64 ↑ (3.97)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 9.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Birżebbuġa St. Peters
55.7%

Draw
24.8%

Santa Lucia
19.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.8%

23.4%

22.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

54.9%

22.9%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Birżebbuġa St. Peters has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.9%)

Santa Lucia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birżebbuġa St. Peters than the current prediction. (-0.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Santa Lucia than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

Birżebbuġa St. Peters - Santa Lucia Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
78', 0 - 1, Cordina J. ⚽,
90+1', 🟥,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Challenge League (Promotion Group: ) and 11 in the zone Challenge League (Relegation Group: )).

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Birżebbuġa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Birżebbuġa has had a series of away games.

In this match, Birżebbuġa is the team to beat.

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
11	Santa Lucia	2	0	2	0	1:1	0	2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Birżebbuġa St. Peters
Maltese Challenge League
01.02.26	Balzan - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	3:0 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
27.01.26	Żurrieq - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	3:0 ✺
Maltese Challenge League
17.01.26	Vittoriosa Stars - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	1:1 ✺
10.01.26	Birżebbuġa St. Peters - St. Andrews	1:0 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
04.01.26	Balzan - Birżebbuġa St. Peters	1:2 penalties ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 LLTWW
- Santa Lucia FC
Maltese Challenge League
01.02.26	Santa Lucia - Melita	2:2 ✺
18.01.26	Marsa - Santa Lucia	2:2 ✺
11.01.26	Santa Lucia - Żebbuġ Rangers	0:0 ✺
Maltese FA Trophy
04.01.26	Fgura United - Santa Lucia	2:1 ✺
Maltese Challenge League
20.12.25	Santa Lucia - Balzan	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 TTTLT

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