Match Info

Primera B - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 15 March 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata (Barrancabermeja)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win play


	Orsomarso		Real Santander

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.85	3.1	4.25
	1.93	3.19	4.55
	1.92	3.03	4.56	Watch
	1.85	2.8	4.2
	1.79	3.08	4.65	Watch
	1.71	3.4	4.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.84 ↑ (1.71)	3.1 ↓ (3.4)	4.47 ↓ (4.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.1%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Orsomarso
49.8%

Draw
29.6%

Real Santander
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

53.3%

26.8%

19.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

55.1%

25.9%

19.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Orsomarso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.5%)

Real Santander has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Orsomarso than the current prediction. (+5.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Orsomarso, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Real Santander than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Orsomarso - Real Santander Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Orsomarso (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Arango H. (G) 6. Agamez S. 9. Arrechea S. 13. Barreiro J. 5. Barrios D. 7. Girado S. (C) 20. Gomez L. 4. Lasso M. 14. Martinez E. 10. Ruiz A. 3. Salinas J.	1. Mora J. (C) 15. Ararat J. 29. Carrasco J. 11. Diaz M. 3. Duran C. 27. Guillen Sanchez J. D. 35. Montero Alarcon F. 2. Perez J. 24. Rangel L. 7. Rueda Juan 31. Tapia D.
Substitutes
26. Gonzalez S. 12. Grisales J. (G) 17. Hernandez J. 21. Lourido D. 29. Martinez S. 23. Parra J. 18. Valoyes Y. 25. Villareal A. 8. Zarante	19. Ahumada S. 36. Ayala J. 38. Casquete L. 12. Lazaro J. (G) 26. Perez J. 9. Rey S. 6. Ruiz Bravo D. F. 25. Segura A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
22', Montero Alarcon F. 🟨,
27', 🟨,
38', Martinez E. ↓, Valoyes Y. ↑,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Montero Alarcon F. ↓, Ruiz Bravo D. F. ↑,
52', 1 - 0, Girado S. (Penalty Awarded),
54', Lasso M. 🟨,
65', Salinas J. 🟨,
66', Ruiz A. ↓, Zarante ↑,
66', Salinas J. ↓, Hernandez J. ↑,
75', Ararat J. ↓, Casquete L. ↑,
75', Rangel L. ↓, Segura A. ↑,
75', Arrechea S. ↓, Martinez S. ↑,
75', Valoyes Y. ↓, Parra J. ↑,
83', Rueda Juan 🟨,
84', 2 - 0, Parra J. ⚽,
86', Tapia D. ↓, Rey S. ↑,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 13 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Orsomarso won 3.

Recent form of Orsomarso has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Real Santander has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Orsomarso may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Orsomarso has had a series of away games.

In this match, Orsomarso is seen as the favorite.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Orsomarso won 6 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 20:17. (average 1.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Orsomarso won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:9. (average 2:1.1).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Real Santander	11	2	6	3	13:18	-5	12
14	Orsomarso	11	2	4	5	7:11	-4	10

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Orsomarso SC
Colombian Primera B
11.03.26	Atlético Cali - Orsomarso	1:1 ✺
06.03.26	Real Cartagena - Orsomarso	4:0 ✺
01.03.26	Orsomarso - Envigado	0:1 ✺
22.02.26	Real Cundinamarca - Orsomarso	1:0 ✺
17.02.26	Boca Juniors de Cali - Orsomarso	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TLLLT
- Real Santander
Colombian Primera B
10.03.26	Real Santander - Boca Juniors de Cali	1:1 ✺
05.03.26	Real Santander - Deportes Quindío	1:2 ✺
28.02.26	Internacional de Palmira - Real Santander	1:0 ✺
23.02.26	Independiente Valle del Cauca - Real Santander	1:1 ✺
14.02.26	Real Santander - Real Cundinamarca	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.2 TLLTW

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera B
14.09.25	Orsomarso - Real Santander	1:0
06.04.25	Real Santander - Orsomarso	0:0
02.10.24	Real Santander - Orsomarso	0:2
11.03.24	Orsomarso - Real Santander	4:2
14.09.23	Orsomarso - Real Santander	2:2
09.04.23	Real Santander - Orsomarso	0:1
20.08.22	Orsomarso - Real Santander	0:0

Upcoming Matches