Match Info

SOUTH AMERICA: Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - 1/8-finals

Date: 22 August 2024, Thursday

Location: Estadio Hernando Siles (La Paz)

Referee: Perez Y. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Life
Argentina	Fox Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 3
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 2, Moja TV
Brazil	Claro TV+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping
Canada	beIN Connect, FuboTV
Chile	ESPN Premium
Colombia	ESPN 2
Croatia	Arena Sport 3, MAXtv To Go
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	Sporty TV
North-central-america	ESPN 5 Norte, ESPNPlay Caribbean
Portugal	Sport TV1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 3
South-america	ESPN South
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
Usa	beIN Connect, FuboTV, Tubi TV
World	Disney+, Fanatiz, LaLiga+ app


	Bolívar		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	1.85	3.5	4.1	Watch
	1.88	3.6	4.1
	1.9	3.5	4	Watch
	1.93	3.66	4.09
	1.89	3.68	4.04	Watch
	1.83	3.5	3.7	Watch
	1.93	3.65	4.03	Watch
	1.9	3.5	4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.2)	3.57 ↓ (3.6)	4.01 ↑ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bolívar
50%

Draw
26.4%

Flamengo
23.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

26.1%

31.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.4%

25.7%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bolívar has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bolívar's performance.

Flamengo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Flamengo might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bolívar than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bolívar that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (+7.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Flamengo could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52.6%	15.8%	31.6%

Bolívar - Flamengo Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Bolívar will win (votes: 9 - 50%). Flamengo will win (votes: 6 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 16.7%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bolívar: 26.9% – 73.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lampe C. (G) 2. Sagredo J. 44. Orihuela R. 3. Anderson Jesus 4. Sagredo J. 23. Justiniano L. 10. Bruno Savio 20. Saucedo F. (C) 11. Vaca R. 90. Fabio Gomes 9. Oviedo A.	1. Rossi A. (G) 2. Varela G. 15. Fabricio Bruno 4. Leo Pereira 6. Ayrton Lucas 5. Pulgar E. 3. Leo Ortiz 7. Luiz Araujo 18. de la Cruz N. 8. Gerson (C) 22. Carlinhos
Substitutes
16. Arroyo D. 18. Chavez Cruz L. L. 12. Cordano R. (G) 6. Granell A. 8. Paz L. 22. Rocha Y. 17. Rodriguez P. 30. Uzeda J. 27. Vaca H. 33. Vaca Moreno E. 21. Velasquez J.	27. Bruno Henrique 44. Carbone 33. Cleiton 23. David Luiz 52. Evertton 42. Fabiano H. A. d. S. 48. Igor Jesus 19. Lorran 24. Lucas Furtado (G) 53. Lucyan 25. Matheus Cunha (G) 29. Victor Hugo
Coaches
Robatto F.	Tite

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
28', de la Cruz N. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
47', Anderson Jesus 🟨,
57', 1 - 0, Bruno Savio ⚽, Fabio Gomes (A),
61', Gerson 🟨,
68', Sagredo J. ↓, Rocha Y. ↑,
73', Saucedo F. ↓, Vaca H. ↑,
74', de la Cruz N. ↓, Bruno Henrique ↑,
74', Carlinhos ↓, David Luiz ↑,
80', Gerson ↓, Evertton ↑,
89', Anderson Jesus 🟥,
90', Bruno Savio 🟨,
90+5', Evertton 🟨,

Preview

2nd leg. 1st leg result: 0-2.

Bolívar is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Flamengo is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Flamengo could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Bolívar is a favorite.

Last 5 head-to-head matches Bolívar won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 5-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Bolívar won 2 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bolívar La Paz
Bolivian Division Profesional
19.08.24	Bolívar - San Antonio Bulo Bulo	0:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.08.24	Flamengo - Bolívar	2:0 ✺
Bolivian Division Profesional
08.08.24	Bolívar - Jorge Wilstermann	2:0 ✺
03.08.24	Royal Pari - Bolívar	0:1 ✺
31.07.24	Bolívar - GVCD San José	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TLWWW
- Flamengo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
18.08.24	Botafogo RJ - Flamengo	4:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
15.08.24	Flamengo - Bolívar	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
11.08.24	Flamengo - Palmeiras	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
07.08.24	Palmeiras - Flamengo	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
03.08.24	São Paulo - Flamengo	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.2 LWTLL

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
15.08.24	Flamengo - Bolívar	2:0
15.05.24	Flamengo - Bolívar	4:0
24.04.24	Bolívar - Flamengo	2:1
19.03.14	Bolívar - Flamengo	1:0
12.03.14	Flamengo - Bolívar	2:2

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