Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 17

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Lacerda D. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, SporTV, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol


	Flamengo		Palmeiras

	1	X	2
	1.76	3.4	5	Watch
	1.85	3.5	4.33
	1.82	3.35	4.45
	1.84	3.52	5.3
	1.84	3.51	4.56
	1.75	3.3	4.5
	1.84	3.42	4.84	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.81 ↓ (1.86)	3.43 ↑ (3.27)	4.71 ↑ (4.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 1.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Flamengo
52.2%

Draw
27.6%

Palmeiras
20.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

49.3%

28.1%

22.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.9%

29%

21.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	37.5%	12.5%

Flamengo - Palmeiras Predictions

Users Predictions: 8 users predict this event. Flamengo will win (votes: 4 - 50%). Palmeiras will win (votes: 1 - 12.5%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 37.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Flamengo: 15.4% – 84.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rossi A. (G) 2. Varela G. 3. Leo Ortiz 4. Leo Pereira (C) 26. Alex Sandro 52. Evertton Araujo 21. Jorginho 15. Carrascal J. 20. Lucas Paqueta 16. Samuel Lino 9. Pedro	1. Carlos Miguel (G) 4. Giay A. 15. Gomez G. (C) 26. Murilo 56. Arthur Gabriel 32. Martinez E. 17. Marlon Freitas 40. Allan Elias 8. Andreas Pereira 11. Arias J. 42. Lopez J.
Substitutes
6. Ayrton Lucas 27. Bruno Henrique 42. da Silva Ventura A. (G) 18. de la Cruz N. 49. Dyogo Alves (G) 22. Emerson Royal 7. Luiz Araujo 8. Niguez S. 19. Plata G. 5. Pulgar E. 44. Vitao 64. Wallace Yan	45. Erick Bele 7. Felipe Anderson 6. Jefte 12. Khellven 48. Larson 30. Lucas Evangelista 31. Luighi 50. Luis Pacheco 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 18. Mauricio 10. Paulinho 37. Riquelme Fillipi
Coaches
Jardim L.	Abel Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
21', Carrascal J. 🟥,
29', Lucas Paqueta 🟨,
32', Andreas Pereira 🟨,
38', 0 - 1, Lopez J. ⚽, Allan Elias (A),
40', Lopez J. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Evertton Araujo ↓, Bruno Henrique ↑,
57', 0 - 2, Allan Elias ⚽,
61', Arias J. 🟨,
65', Bruno Henrique 🟨,
68', Samuel Lino ↓, Plata G. ↑,
72', Carlos Miguel 🟨,
75', Arias J. ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
75', Andreas Pereira ↓, Mauricio ↑,
81', Lucas Paqueta ↓, de la Cruz N. ↑,
81', Allan Elias ↓, Paulinho ↑,
81', Arthur Gabriel ↓, Jefte ↑,
87', Jorginho ↓, Niguez S. ↑,
87', Pedro ↓, Wallace Yan ↑,
87', Giay A. 🟨,
90+1', Lopez J. ↓, Lucas Evangelista ↑,
90+2', de la Cruz N. 🟨,
90+5', 0 - 3, Paulinho ⚽, Jefte (A),
90+8', Paulinho 🟨,
90+10', Wallace Yan 🟨,
90+10', Leo Pereira 🟨,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Recently, Flamengo has had a series of away games.

In this match, Flamengo is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Flamengo: Danilo (Red Card) de Arrascaeta G. (Shoulder Injury)

There will not play in Palmeiras: Benedetti (Ankle Injury) Bruno Fuchs (Hamstring Injury) Felipe Anderson (Injury) Piquerez J. (Knee Injury) Sosa R. (Injury) Vitor Roque (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Flamengo: Plata G. (Knee Injury) Pulgar E. (Shoulder Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Flamengo won 11 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 34:17. (average 1.7:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Flamengo won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 18:5. (average 2:0.6).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Flamengo RJ	31	20	7	4	61:25	36	67
2	Palmeiras	31	19	9	3	54:22	32	66

Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Flamengo RJ: 60.23% Palmeiras: 38.72%

Last Results with these Odds

Flamengo - the odds 1.86 are the expected chance of winning is 49.34%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Flamengo RJ
Copa Libertadores
20.05.26	Flamengo - Estudiantes La Plata	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
17.05.26	Athletico Paranaense - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
14.05.26	Vitória Salvador - Flamengo	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Grêmio - Flamengo	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
07.05.26	Independiente Medellín - Flamengo	Abandoned ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 WTLW?
- Palmeiras
Copa Libertadores
20.05.26	Palmeiras - Cerro Porteño	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
16.05.26	Palmeiras - Cruzeiro	1:1 ✺
Copa do Brasil
13.05.26	Jacuipense - Palmeiras	1:4 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
10.05.26	Remo - Palmeiras	1:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
05.05.26	Sporting Cristal - Palmeiras	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Copa Libertadores
29.11.25	Palmeiras - Flamengo	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
19.10.25	Flamengo - Palmeiras	3:2
25.05.25	Palmeiras - Flamengo	0:2
11.08.24	Flamengo - Palmeiras	1:1
Copa do Brasil
07.08.24	Palmeiras - Flamengo	1:0
31.07.24	Flamengo - Palmeiras	2:0
Brazilian Serie A
21.04.24	Palmeiras - Flamengo	0:0

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