Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Play Offs - Final

Date: 29 November 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Monumental (Lima)

Referee: Herrera D. (Arg)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	Sporty TV, StarTimes App, Startimes World Football
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Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
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Canada	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports Espanol
Chile	ESPN Premium
Colombia	ESPN
Croatia	Arena Sport 2, MAXtv To Go
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Germany	Sportdigital1+
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 3
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 4
Italy	Como TV
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Malaysia	Mola
Mexico	Disney+, ESPN 2, ESPN
Netherlands	Canal+, ESPN 2
New-zealand	beIN Connect
North-central-america	ESPN Norte
Peru	Disney+, ESPN
Poland	Polsat Sport 2
Portugal	Sport TV2
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Slovenia	Arena Sport 2
South-america	ESPN South
Spain	LaLiga+, M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+, #Vamos
Switzerland	Blue Sport 10, Blue Sport 10
Turkey	S Sport, S Sport+
United-kingdom	BBC iPlayer app, BBC iPlayer, BBC Sport app, BBC Sport, BBC Three
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	beIN Connect, beIN Sports, beIN Sports US Espanol, Fanatiz
Venezuela	Disney+, ESPN, Inter
World	Pluto TV


	Palmeiras		Flamengo

	1	X	2
	3.4	3	2.35	Watch
	3.25	2.98	2.32	Watch
	3.46	3.02	2.36
	2.77	3.02	2.73	Watch
	3.48	3.06	2.4	Watch
	3.66	3	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.34 ↑ (2.75)	3.01 ↓ (3.05)	2.4 ↓ (2.7)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Palmeiras
28.6%

Draw
31.7%

Flamengo
39.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.3%

30.9%

34.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.8%

31.3%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Palmeiras has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Palmeiras's form might have worsened.

Flamengo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Palmeiras than the current prediction. (+6.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Palmeiras, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Flamengo than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Flamengo, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
18.7%	56.2%	25%

Palmeiras - Flamengo Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Palmeiras will win (votes: 3 - 18.8%). Flamengo will win (votes: 4 - 25%). It will Tie (votes: 9 - 56.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 32% – 80.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Palmeiras (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Flamengo (votes: 2 - 28.6%). Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

1X2, 1st Half - draw (3.29) (votes: 0 - 0%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 7.5, 1st Half - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Carlos Miguel (G) 3. Bruno Fuchs 15. Gomez G. (C) 26. Murilo 12. Khellven 23. Raphael Veiga 8. Pereira A. 22. Piquerez J. 40. Allan 42. Lopez J. 9. Vitor Roque	1. Rossi A. (G) 2. Varela G. 13. Danilo 4. Leo Pereira 26. Alex Sandro 5. Pulgar E. 21. Jorginho 15. Carrascal J. 10. de Arrascaeta G. 16. Samuel Lino 27. Bruno Henrique (C)
Substitutes
43. Benedetti 11. Bruno Rodrigues 7. Felipe Anderson 4. Giay A. 6. Jefte 14. Marcelo Lomba (G) 32. Martinez E. 18. Mauricio 13. Micael 5. Moreno A. 19. Sosa R. 17. Torres F.	6. Ayrton Lucas 18. de la Cruz N. 22. Emerson Royal 11. Everton 52. Evertton Araujo 23. Juninho 3. Leo Ortiz 7. Luiz Araujo 25. Matheus Cunha (G) 30. Michael 8. Niguez S. 64. Wallace Yan
Coaches
Abel Ferreira	Filipe Luis

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
13', Raphael Veiga 🟨,
25', de Arrascaeta G. 🟨,
30', Pulgar E. 🟨,
38', Jorginho 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
56', Piquerez J. 🟨,
67', 0 - 1, Danilo ⚽, de Arrascaeta G. (A),
68', Samuel Lino ↓, Everton ↑,
72', Raphael Veiga ↓, Felipe Anderson ↑,
72', Allan ↓, Torres F. ↑,
77', Murilo 🟨,
78', Khellven ↓, Sosa R. ↑,
78', Murilo ↓, Giay A. ↑,
80', de Arrascaeta G. ↓, Luiz Araujo ↑,
85', Bruno Henrique ↓, Juninho ↑,
87', Felipe Anderson ↓, Mauricio ↑,
90+1', Mauricio 🟨,

Preview

Neutral location - Estadio Monumental.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 1.

Palmeiras is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Flamengo is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Flamengo could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Palmeiras: Lucas Evangelista (Hamstring Injury) Paulinho (Leg Injury)

There will not play in Flamengo: Allan (Inactive) Pedro (Broken Hand) Plata G. (Red Card) Vina M. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Flamengo: Leo Ortiz (Ankle Injury) Pulgar E. (Inactive)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Palmeiras won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 18:34. (average 0.9:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Palmeiras won 3 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:15. (average 1.2:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Palmeiras
Brazilian Serie A
25.11.25	Grêmio - Palmeiras	3:2 ✺
22.11.25	Palmeiras - Fluminense	0:0 ✺
19.11.25	Palmeiras - Vitória Salvador	0:0 ✺
15.11.25	Santos - Palmeiras	1:0 ✺
09.11.25	Mirassol - Palmeiras	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LTTLL
- Flamengo RJ
Brazilian Serie A
25.11.25	Atlético Mineiro - Flamengo	1:1 ✺
22.11.25	Flamengo - Red Bull Bragantino	3:0 ✺
19.11.25	Fluminense - Flamengo	2:1 ✺
15.11.25	Sport Recife - Flamengo	1:5 ✺
09.11.25	Flamengo - Santos	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4 TWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
19.10.25	Flamengo - Palmeiras	3:2
25.05.25	Palmeiras - Flamengo	0:2
11.08.24	Flamengo - Palmeiras	1:1
Copa do Brasil
07.08.24	Palmeiras - Flamengo	1:0
31.07.24	Flamengo - Palmeiras	2:0
Brazilian Serie A
21.04.24	Palmeiras - Flamengo	0:0
08.11.23	Flamengo - Palmeiras	3:0

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