Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 7

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Parque Artigas (Las Piedras)

Referee: De Armas M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Venezuela	Disney+


	Boston River		Progreso

	1	X	2
	1.95	3.1	3.5	Watch
	1.93	3.25	3.60
	2.02	3.15	3.45
	2.14	3.29	3.71
	1.95	3.38	3.91	Watch
	2.11	3.25	3.6
	2.05	3.25	3.67	Watch
	2.05	3.25	3.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.03 ↑ (1.94)	3.24 ↓ (3.39)	3.62 ↓ (3.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boston River
45.8%

Draw
28.6%

Progreso
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

48.2%

27.6%

24.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.7%

27.3%

24%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boston River has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.4%)

Progreso has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Boston River than the current prediction. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Boston River - Progreso Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Boston River will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Progreso will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Progreso (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Antunez B. (G) 31. Acosta J. 30. Gonzalez M. (C) 4. Fernandez I. 22. Martinez F. 6. Saravia F. 15. Vazquez L. 16. Suhr L. 17. Orona M. 13. Aristegui F. 27. Siri N.	1. Bacchia R. (G) 16. Trasante G. 15. Martin M. 6. Saravia M. 40. Cougo A. 5. Pinheiro A. (C) 25. Cristobal R. 7. Ocampo A. 10. Lopez N. 17. De Leon F. 14. Viana L.
Substitutes
25. Aguirre A. 10. Amado A. 20. Avenatti F. 9. Bonfiglio F. 12. Gonzalez J. (G) 3. Mancebo M. 24. O'Neill Lopez J. S. 11. Ramirez G. 8. Suarez L. 43. Valdez F.	11. Acosta N. 24. Alvarez E. 13. Carroso H. 30. Codagnone A. 4. Couture L. 9. Dos Santos J. 12. Fernandez L. (G) 3. Garcia F. 8. Juambeltz M. 22. Oliva J.
Coaches
Ithurralde I.	Silva T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
9', 0 - 1, Martinez F. (Own goal),
26', Viana L. ↓, Juambeltz M. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Saravia F. ↓, Amado A. ↑,
46', Vazquez L. ↓, Avenatti F. ↑,
46', Aristegui F. ↓, Valdez F. ↑,
48', Fernandez I. 🟨,
56', Juambeltz M. 🟨,
58', Cougo A. 🟨,
62', De Leon F. ↓, Alvarez E. ↑,
70', Fernandez I. ↓, Ramirez G. ↑,
71', 1 - 1, Siri N. ⚽,
75', Acosta J. ↓, Suarez L. ↑,
75', Cristobal R. ↓, Couture L. ↑,
75', Trasante G. ↓, Acosta N. ↑,
75', Ocampo A. ↓, Dos Santos J. ↑,
90', 1 - 2, Lopez N. ⚽,
90+2', Saravia M. 🟨,

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8th and 11th).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Boston River won 2.

The recent form of both competitors has been marked by mixed results.

Boston River could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Bookmakers give the edge to Boston River for this game.

In the last 17 head-to-head meetings, Boston River has recorded 5 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses, with a goal aggregate of 17:19 (averaging 1:1.1 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Boston River against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, with 11:10 goals (averaging 1.2:1.1 per game).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
10	Progreso	9	4	0	5	9:12	-3	12
11	Boston River	9	2	3	4	10:12	-2	9

Last Results with these Odds

Progreso - the odds 3.86 are the expected chance of winning is 24.22%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boston River
Uruguayan Primera Division
12.09.26	Racing Montevideo - Boston River	3:2 ✺
Uruguay Copa
09.09.26	Boston River - Colón Montevideo	2:0 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
06.09.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Boston River	1:0 ✺
Uruguay Copa
02.09.26	Liverpool Montevideo - Boston River	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
29.08.26	Boston River - Cerro	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LWLWT
- CA Progreso
Uruguay Copa
16.09.26	Progreso - Nacional Montevideo	0:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
13.09.26	Progreso - Cerro	1:3 ✺
07.09.26	Albion Montevideo - Progreso	0:1 ✺
Uruguay Copa
03.09.26	Albion Montevideo - Progreso	2:1 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
29.08.26	Progreso - Danubio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 LLWLW

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
22.03.26	Progreso - Boston River	0:1
Uruguayan Copa de la Liga AUF
29.01.26	Boston River - Progreso	1:2
Uruguayan Primera Division
31.08.25	Boston River - Progreso	2:1
19.06.25	Progreso - Boston River	2:0
09.03.25	Progreso - Boston River	2:2
16.10.24	Boston River - Progreso	1:0
13.04.24	Progreso - Boston River	1:0

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