Match Info

Liga AUF Uruguaya - Clausura - Round 4

Date: 29 August 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Parque Abraham Paladino (Montevideo) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Matonte Cabrera A. M. (Uru)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Argentina	11:00	Disney+
Brazil	11:00	Disney+
Mexico	08:00	Disney+
Peru	09:00	Disney+
Uruguay	11:00	Antel TV, Disney+
Usa	10:00	SportsEngine Play
Venezuela	10:00	Disney+


	Progreso		Danubio

	1	X	2
	2.9	2.9	2.3	Watch
	2.87	3.20	2.30
	2.95	2.92	2.35
	3.11	3.15	2.44
	3.03	3.15	2.4	Watch
	3	3.1	2.35
	2.97	2.95	2.36	Watch
	3	3	2.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.98 ↑ (2.83)	3.05 ↓ (3.05)	2.36 ↓ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Progreso
30.9%

Draw
30.2%

Danubio
38.9%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

32.3%

30%

37.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

33.5%

28.9%

36.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Progreso has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Danubio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Progreso than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Danubio than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

Progreso - Danubio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Bacchia R. (G) 24. Alvarez E. 15. Martin M. 13. Carroso H. 40. Cougo A. 5. Pinheiro A. 25. Cristobal R. 7. Ocampo A. 10. Lopez N. 17. De Leon F. 8. Juambeltz M.	1. Goicoechea M. (C) 28. Femia E. 2. Velazquez E. 19. Brasil M. 31. Cavanagh T. 16. Rossi I. 10. Peralta M. 20. Ferreira M. 77. Tomatis B. 30. Fernandez S. 9. Silveira H.
Substitutes
11. Acosta N. 21. Bruschi S. 2. Cardozo Coitinho S. 30. Codagnone A. 23. Copelotti M. 4. Couture L. 12. Fernandez L. (G) 3. Garcia F. 16. Trasante G. 14. Viana L.	. Costantino I. 15. Figueroa E. 11. John Kleber 32. Martinez K. (G) 5. Millan J. 4. Rinaldi M. 8. Rodriguez S. 6. Sosa L. 38. Trasante J. 17. Velazquez A.
Coaches
Silva T.	Rocco L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
26', Ocampo A. 🟨,
28', Ferreira M. 🟨,
30', Femia E. 🟨,
45', Juambeltz M. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Juambeltz M. ↓, Copelotti M. ↑,
46', Alvarez E. ↓, Trasante G. ↑,
46', Silveira H. ↓, Costantino I. ↑,
58', Ferreira M. ↓, Rodriguez S. ↑,
58', Rossi I. ↓, Millan J. ↑,
69', Cristobal R. ↓, Couture L. ↑,
69', Ocampo A. ↓, Acosta N. ↑,
69', Tomatis B. ↓, John Kleber ↑,
73', Velazquez E. 🟨,
74', Millan J. 🟨,
78', Copelotti M. ↓, Viana L. ↑,
89', 1 - 0, Lopez N. ⚽,
90', Lopez N. 🟨,

Preview

The game will be played between two neighbours in the standings (ranked 12 and 14)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 2.

Progreso is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

In recent matches, Danubio has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Progreso may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 18 head-to-head matches, Progreso won 10 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 27:16. (average 1.5:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Progreso won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 12:5. (average 1.2:0.5).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Progreso	11	5	1	5	12:13	-1	16
13	Danubio	12	2	4	6	6:13	-7	10

Last Results with these Odds

Progreso - the odds 2.83 are the expected chance of winning is 32.28%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Danubio - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 37.74%, but this team recently wins 9% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CA Progreso
Uruguay Copa
26.08.26	Progreso - River Plate Montevideo	0:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.08.26	Nacional Montevideo - Progreso	1:0 ✺
16.08.26	Progreso - Deportivo Maldonado	0:2 ✺
08.08.26	Central Español - Progreso	1:0 ✺
02.08.26	Nacional Montevideo - Progreso	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL
- Danubio FC
Uruguay Copa
26.08.26	Danubio - Atenas de San Carlos	3:2 ✺
Uruguayan Primera Division
23.08.26	Danubio - Racing Montevideo	0:0 ✺
14.08.26	Boston River - Danubio	0:0 ✺
09.08.26	Danubio - Cerro	0:1 ✺
01.08.26	Albion Montevideo - Danubio	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.6 WTTLT

Latest Head to Head

Uruguayan Primera Division
30.05.26	Danubio - Progreso	1:2
28.02.26	Danubio - Progreso	2:2
24.08.25	Progreso - Danubio	1:0
31.05.25	Progreso - Danubio	0:1
23.02.25	Danubio - Progreso	1:1
12.10.24	Progreso - Danubio	0:0
06.04.24	Danubio - Progreso	1:1

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