Match Info

Serie C - Second stage - Round 4

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Jose Americo de Almeida Filho (Almeidao) (Joao Pessoa)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	BandSports, SportyNet


	Botafogo PB		Maringá

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.35	3.10	2.65
	2.35	3.05	2.7	Watch
	2.38	3.35	2.93
	2.4	3.24	2.9	Watch
	2.3	3.05	2.75
	2.3	3.18	2.78	Watch
	2.34	3.1	2.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.35 ↑ (2.1)	3.15 (3.15)	2.77 ↓ (3.15)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo PB
38.6%

Draw
28.7%

Maringá
32.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.9%

28.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

45.6%

30.4%

26.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo PB has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Maringá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo PB than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Botafogo PB, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Maringá than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Maringá, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Botafogo PB - Maringá Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
27. Luiz Daniel (G) 77. Bastos R. 2. Diogo Mateus 7. Dudu Hatamoto 8. Igor Maduro 5. Jhonata Varela 15. Kayon 10. Nene (C) 6. Patric Calmon 4. Saimon 3. Yan Souto	25. Neto (G) 8. Adeilson 99. Caique Calito 7. Edison Negueba 18. Jhow Alecxander 28. Lucas Bonifacio 23. Paulinho 21. Ronald Camarao 30. Ronald Carvalho 6. Thiago Rosa 4. Wendel Lomar (C)
Substitutes
16. Bull 25. Caio Garcia 11. Diego Tavares 31. Gustavo 9. Henrique Dourado 14. Igor Morais 33. Julio Vaz 21. Leandro Mathias (G) 22. Leo Pereira 28. Lucas Candido 35. Octavio 20. Thallyson	1. Affonso de Jesus G. (G) 20. Bruno Cheron 11. Danielzinho 14. Felipe Cardoso 3. Gabriel Santos 2. Gabriel Souza 10. Guilherme Pira 17. Iago Santana 19. Julio Rodrigues 5. Kelvi Gomes 77. Rafinha 37. Serginho
Coaches
Fernandes M.	Campanari I.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Saimon 🟨,
29', Igor Maduro ↓, Thallyson ↑,
43', Ronald Camarao 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Dudu Hatamoto ↓, Henrique Dourado ↑,
60', Patric Calmon ↓, Bull ↑,
68', Edison Negueba ↓, Guilherme Pira ↑,
73', Jhonata Varela ↓, Gustavo ↑,
73', Kayon ↓, Diego Tavares ↑,
76', Jhow Alecxander ↓, Gabriel Santos ↑,
76', Paulinho ↓, Iago Santana ↑,
83', Luiz Daniel 🟨,
83', Caique Calito 🟨,
85', Lucas Bonifacio 🟨,
87', Ronald Camarao ↓, Julio Rodrigues ↑,
87', Caique Calito ↓, Serginho ↑,
90+4', Diogo Mateus 🟨,

Preview

A direct battle for position between neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 4th and 2nd in the Promotion ~ Serie B).

In recent outings, Botafogo PB has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Maringá is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 3 head-to-head meetings, Botafogo PB has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss, with a goal aggregate of 3:4 (averaging 1:1.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Botafogo PB against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with 2:1 goals.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie C for now

Maringa FC: 6.99%

Last Results with these Odds

Botafogo PB - the odds 2.1 are the expected chance of winning is 42.86%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo PB
Brazilian Serie C
19.09.26	Maringá - Botafogo PB	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Botafogo PB - Floresta	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Santa Cruz Recife - Botafogo PB	1:0 ✺
29.08.26	Itabaiana - Botafogo PB	0:2 ✺
22.08.26	Botafogo PB - Guarani	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LLLWW
- Maringá FC
Brazilian Serie C
19.09.26	Maringá - Botafogo PB	2:0 ✺
12.09.26	Maringá - Santa Cruz Recife	0:1 ✺
06.09.26	Floresta - Maringá	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Paysandu - Maringá	0:1 ✺
23.08.26	Maringá - Barra Santa Catarina	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
19.09.26	Maringá - Botafogo PB	2:0
30.05.26	Botafogo PB - Maringá	2:1
18.05.25	Maringá - Botafogo PB	1:1

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