Match Info

Carioca - Taca Rio - Semi-finals

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Premiere, SporTV


	Botafogo RJ		Boavista

	1	X	2
	1.63	3.3	6.25
	1.58	3.85	5.5
	1.52	3.91	6.38
	1.59	4	5.25	Watch
	1.5	3.5	5.5
	1.56	3.77	6.11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.61)	3.72 ↑ (3.45)	5.83 ↓ (5.84)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo RJ
59.2%

Draw
24.9%

Boavista
15.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.4%

26.8%

15.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.3%

25.9%

15.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo RJ has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.8%)

Boavista has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+0.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Boavista than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Botafogo RJ - Boavista Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Botafogo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Raul Steffens (G) 42. Kadu Santos 3. Ythallo 34. Justino G. (C) 36. Gabriel Abdias 88. Edenilson 48. Arthur Novaes 30. Correa J. 45. Caio Valle 7. Artur 19. Arthur Cabral	1. Lucas Maticoli (G) 2. Igor Franca 5. Ryan Couto 3. Bruno Jesus 6. Titto 4. Andre Fausto 8. Fernando 11. Bere 10. Isael (C) 7. Lucas Silva 20. Cesinha
Substitutes
13. Alex Telles 39. Arthur Izaque 20. Barboza A. 14. Barrera J. 40. Loor C. (G) 64. Marquinhos 47. Miguel Caldas 10. Montoro A. 16. Nathan Fernandes 68. Nery D. 4. Ponte M. 77. Villalba Jaume L. M.	9. Brunao 13. Felipe Santos 16. Gabriel Richvicki 18. Gui Sales 22. Khawhan 19. Luis Henrique 21. Marcus Vinicius 12. Matheus (G) 17. Misael Xavier 15. Riquelme 23. Sandrinho 14. Xarife
Coaches
Anselmi M.	Gilson Kleina

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Cesinha ↓, Luis Henrique ↑,
58', Luis Henrique 🟨,
62', Arthur Novaes 🟨,
75', Artur ↓, Villalba Jaume L. M. ↑,
75', Correa J. ↓, Nathan Fernandes ↑,
77', Bere ↓, Khawhan ↑,
77', Fernando ↓, Sandrinho ↑,
81', Arthur Novaes ↓, Montoro A. ↑,
81', Caio Valle ↓, Barrera J. ↑,
82', Bruno Jesus 🟨,
84', Isael ↓, Brunao ↑,
87', Lucas Silva ↓, Misael Xavier ↑,

Preview

First leg result: 2-0. Second leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 3.

Recent performances by Botafogo have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Boavista is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Botafogo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Botafogo is the team to beat.

In the last 16 head-to-head matches, Botafogo won 11 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 27:8. (average 1.7:0.5).

Including home matches between the teams, Botafogo won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 1.2:0.2).

Last Results with these Odds

Botafogo RJ - the odds 1.61 are the expected chance of winning is 57.39%, but this team recently wins 69% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo RJ
Copa Libertadores
25.02.26	Botafogo RJ - Nacional Potosí	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
21.02.26	Boavista - Botafogo RJ	0:2 ✺
Copa Libertadores
18.02.26	Nacional Potosí - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
15.02.26	Botafogo RJ - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Fluminense - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.1 WWLLL
- Boavista SC
Copa do Brasil
24.02.26	Boavista - Maringá	2:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
21.02.26	Boavista - Botafogo RJ	0:2 ✺
13.02.26	Madureira - Boavista	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Bangu - Boavista	1:1 ✺
30.01.26	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Boavista	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LLLTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
21.02.26	Boavista - Botafogo RJ	0:2
15.02.25	Boavista - Botafogo RJ	1:1
31.03.24	Botafogo RJ - Boavista	2:0
27.03.24	Boavista - Botafogo RJ	0:4
24.01.24	Boavista - Botafogo RJ	1:0
05.02.23	Boavista - Botafogo RJ	0:4
25.01.22	Boavista - Botafogo RJ	1:1

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