Match Info

Carioca - Taca Rio - Semi-finals

Date: 21 February 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Elcyr Resende de Mendonca (Rio de Janeiro)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Premiere, SporTV


	Boavista		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	2.58	3.1	2.72
	2.84	3.05	2.36
	2.56	3.09	2.81	Watch
	2.45	2.8	2.75
	2.47	2.96	2.72
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.58 ↓ (2.86)	3 ↓ (3.17)	2.67 ↑ (2.42)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Boavista
35.4%

Draw
30.4%

Botafogo RJ
34.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.4%

29.3%

38.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.7%

28.6%

39.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Boavista has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3%)

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Boavista than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+5%)

Boavista - Botafogo RJ Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DNB - Botafogo (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Botafogo (1.96) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Boavista (1.40) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Boavista (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Botafogo (votes: 2 - 66.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lucas Maticoli (G) 2. Cesinha 3. Bruno Jesus 4. Guilherme Lacerda 6. Titto 8. Kadu 5. Fernando 11. Fellipinho 10. Isael (C) 7. Lucas Silva 9. Brunao	1. Raul Steffens (G) 42. Kadu Santos 67. Hernandez J. 3. Ythallo 34. Justino G. (C) 88. Edenilson 48. Arthur Novaes 77. Villalba Jaume L. M. 45. Caio Valle 16. Nathan Fernandes 7. Artur
Substitutes
14. Andre Fausto 17. Bere 16. Gabriel Richvicki 20. Gui Sales 13. Igor Franca 18. Khawhan 23. Leandrinho 21. Luis Henrique 22. Marcus Vinicius 12. Matheus (G) 15. Ryan Couto 19. Sandrinho	39. Arthur Izaque 20. Barboza A. 14. Barrera J. 37. Barria K. 80. Bernardo Valim 36. Gabriel Abdias 59. Kauan Toledo 40. Loor C. (G) 10. Montoro A. 28. Newton 4. Ponte M. 2. Vitinho
Coaches
Gilson Kleina	Anselmi M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
30', Titto 🟨,
44', 0 - 1, Justino G. ⚽, Ythallo (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
47', 0 - 2, Artur ⚽, Edenilson (A),
55', Cesinha 🟨,
57', Fellipinho ↓, Bere ↑,
58', Kadu ↓, Gabriel Richvicki ↑,
69', Isael ↓, Luis Henrique ↑,
69', Brunao ↓, Ryan Couto ↑,
71', Edenilson 🟨,
73', Villalba Jaume L. M. ↓, Gabriel Abdias ↑,
73', Hernandez J. ↓, Arthur Izaque ↑,
73', Nathan Fernandes ↓, Kauan Toledo ↑,
78', Guilherme Lacerda ↓, Andre Fausto ↑,
78', Edenilson ↓, Bernardo Valim ↑,

Preview

First leg.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Boavista won 1.

In recent matches, Boavista has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Botafogo is on a losing streak (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Botafogo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Botafogo has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 15 head-to-head matches, Boavista won 2 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 8:25. (average 0.5:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Boavista won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 7:19. (average 0.7:1.9).

Last Results with these Odds

Botafogo RJ - the odds 2.42 are the expected chance of winning is 38.32%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Boavista SC
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
13.02.26	Madureira - Boavista	2:1 ✺
07.02.26	Bangu - Boavista	1:1 ✺
30.01.26	Sampaio Corrêa FE - Boavista	1:1 ✺
25.01.26	Boavista - Vasco da Gama	0:3 ✺
22.01.26	Boavista - Portuguesa RJ	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LTTLW
- Botafogo RJ
Copa Libertadores
18.02.26	Nacional Potosí - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
15.02.26	Botafogo RJ - Flamengo	1:2 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
12.02.26	Fluminense - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
08.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Grêmio - Botafogo RJ	5:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
15.02.25	Boavista - Botafogo RJ	1:1
31.03.24	Botafogo RJ - Boavista	2:0
27.03.24	Boavista - Botafogo RJ	0:4
24.01.24	Boavista - Botafogo RJ	1:0
05.02.23	Boavista - Botafogo RJ	0:4
25.01.22	Boavista - Botafogo RJ	1:1
03.03.21	Botafogo RJ - Boavista	0:0

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