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Fluminense vs Botafogo RJ Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Thursday, February 12, 2026)

Match Info

Serie A Betano - Round 3

Date: 12 February 2026, Thursday

Location: Maracanã (Rio de Janeiro)

Referee: Klein R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	Flow Eventos
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Sport 1
Brazil	Claro TV+, Globoplay, Premiere, R7, Sky+, TV Record, Vivo Play, Zapping
Ecuador	Canal del Futbol
Israel	Sport 3, Sport 4
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Mexico	Azteca Deportes, Fanatiz
North-central-america	Flow Sports 1 Caribbean
Paraguay	Flow Eventos
Russia	MATCH! Futbol 3, Match TV, Sportbox.ru
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
Spain	M+ Liga de Campeones, Movistar Plus+, Movistar+ Vamos Bar 1
United-kingdom	Premier Sports 1, Premier Sports Player
Uruguay	Flow
Usa	Fanatiz


	Fluminense		Botafogo RJ

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.2	5	Watch
	2.15	3.2	3.6
	1.88	3.2	4.45	Watch
	1.89	3.31	5.08
	1.89	3.27	4.7
	1.85	3	4.6
	1.91	3.27	4.68	Watch
	1.87	3.25	4.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.91 ↓ (2.24)	3.21 ↑ (3.15)	4.61 ↑ (3.14)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Fluminense
49.8%

Draw
29.6%

Botafogo RJ
20.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

29.3%

29.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

27.9%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Fluminense has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Fluminense's performance.

Botafogo RJ has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Botafogo RJ might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Fluminense than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Fluminense that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botafogo RJ than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Botafogo RJ could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	18.7%	6.2%

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Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Botafogo (1.92) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH +0.5 - Fluminense (1.29) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Fluminense (1.31) (votes: 2 - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

AH 0 - Fluminense (1.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Fluminense (1.26) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Fluminense will win (12 of 15 users predict this - 80%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.76% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Fluminense will win (8 of 8 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 17 Selected Experts predict this event. Fluminense (votes: 13 - 76.5%). Botafogo (votes: 4 - 23.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Fabio (G) 2. Samuel Xavier (C) 3. Jemmes 22. Freytes J. 6. Rene 5. Bernal F. 8. Martinelli 17. Canobbio A. 32. Acosta L. 90. Serna K. 9. John Kennedy	22. Neto (G) 3. Ythallo 28. Newton 20. Barboza A. 2. Vitinho 25. Allan 8. Danilo 13. Alex Telles (C) 7. Artur 19. Arthur Cabral 10. Montoro A.
Substitutes
23. Guga 13. Guilherme Arana 35. Hercules 4. Ignacio 21. Igor Rabello 15. Matheus Reis 30. Moreno S. 94. Otavio 10. PH Ganso 11. Savarino J. 7. Soteldo Y. 98. Vitor Eudes (G)	48. Arthur Novaes 14. Barrera J. 37. Barria K. 36. Gabriel Abdias 34. Justino G. 42. Kadu Santos 59. Kauan Toledo 24. Leo Linck (G) 11. Matheus Martins 16. Nathan Fernandes 77. Villalba Jaume L. M. 55. Wallace Davi
Coaches
Zubeldia L.	Anselmi M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
7', Samuel Xavier 🟨,
17', Ythallo 🟨,
24', Allan ↓, Barrera J. ↑,
26', Canobbio A. 🟨,
28', Zubeldia L. 🟨,
45+1', Montoro A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Ythallo ↓, Nathan Fernandes ↑,
55', 1 - 0, Acosta L. ⚽,
61', Canobbio A. 🟥,
69', Alex Telles ↓, Matheus Martins ↑,
69', Acosta L. 🟨,
74', Acosta L. ↓, Guilherme Arana ↑,
74', Samuel Xavier ↓, Guga ↑,
75', Guga 🟨,
82', Vitinho ↓, Villalba Jaume L. M. ↑,
82', Artur ↓, Barria K. ↑,
86', Newton 🟨,
87', John Kennedy ↓, Hercules ↑,
90', Freytes J. 🟨,
90+5', Serna K. ↓, PH Ganso ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 2.

Fluminense is currently enjoying a strong run with several victories in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Botafogo has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Fluminense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Fluminense is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Fluminense: Cano G. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Botafogo: Correa J. (Muscle Injury) Marcal (Knee Injury) Ramos C. (Knock)

There are questionable in Fluminense: Nonato (Injury)

There are questionable in Botafogo: Rodriguez S. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Fluminense won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 19:21. (average 1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Fluminense won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 5 matches, and goals 13:13. (average 1.2:1.2).

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Outrights of Brazilian Serie A for now

Fluminense: 5.6% Botafogo RJ: 1.05%

Standings

2026

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Fluminense	11	6	2	3	18:13	5	20
11	Botafogo RJ	10	4	1	5	18:21	-3	13

Last Results with these Odds

Botafogo RJ - the odds 3.14 are the expected chance of winning is 29.44%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Fluminense RJ
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
08.02.26	Fluminense - Maricá	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
05.02.26	Bahia - Fluminense	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
01.02.26	Botafogo RJ - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
28.01.26	Fluminense - Grêmio	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
25.01.26	Fluminense - Flamengo	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 WTWWW
- Botafogo RJ
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
08.02.26	Vasco da Gama - Botafogo RJ	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
04.02.26	Grêmio - Botafogo RJ	5:3 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
01.02.26	Botafogo RJ - Fluminense	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie A
29.01.26	Botafogo RJ - Cruzeiro	4:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
24.01.26	Botafogo RJ - Bangu	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 LLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
01.02.26	Botafogo RJ - Fluminense	0:1
Brazilian Serie A
28.09.25	Fluminense - Botafogo RJ	2:0
26.04.25	Botafogo RJ - Fluminense	2:0
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
29.01.25	Botafogo RJ - Fluminense	2:1
Brazilian Serie A
21.09.24	Fluminense - Botafogo RJ	0:1
11.06.24	Botafogo RJ - Fluminense	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Carioca
03.03.24	Fluminense - Botafogo RJ	2:4

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