Match Info

Serie B - Round 7

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Santa Cruz (Ribeirao Preto)

Referee: Abatti R. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Canal GOAT, Claro TV+, Disney+, RedeTV!, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Botafogo SP		Náutico Capibaribe

	1	X	2
	2.32	3.1	3.1	Watch
	2.15	3	3.25
	2.4	3.05	2.98
	2.48	3.2	3.24
	2.41	3.09	3.05	Watch
	2.4	2.88	3
	2.42	2.99	3.07	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.37 ↓ (2.61)	3.04 ↓ (3.04)	3.1 ↑ (2.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botafogo SP
39.3%

Draw
30.6%

Náutico Capibaribe
30.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.3%

30.4%

34.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.5%

29.4%

33.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botafogo SP has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4%)

Náutico Capibaribe has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Botafogo SP than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	33.3%	33.3%

Botafogo SP - Náutico Capibaribe Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Botafogo SP will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). Náutico will win (votes: 1 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Jordan (G) 22. Gabriel Inocencio 4. Vilar 13. Wallace 6. Patrick Brey (C) 16. Matheus Sales 5. Leandro Maciel 30. Ze Hugo 8. Everton Morelli 7. Kelvin 21. Luizao	1. Muriel Becker (C) 14. Matheus Ribeiro 34. Wanderson 3. Betao 23. Igor Fernandes 27. Luiz Felipe 8. Wenderson 29. Junior Todinho 10. Dodo 7. Vinicius 72. Derek
Substitutes
25. Brenno Klippel (G) 26. Felipe Vieira 15. Guilherme Mariano 17. Guilherme Queiroz 11. Jefferson Nem 19. Marcio Maranhao 28. Marco Antonio 20. Marquinho 31. Pedro Henrique 10. Rafael Gava 29. Thiago Moraes 23. Wesley Santos	5. Auremir 98. Felipe Saraiva 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 66. Leo Jance 40. Ramon 93. Reginaldo 31. Rosa 41. Samuel Felix 11. Victor Andrade 22. Vitinho 6. Yuri
Coaches
Claudio Tencati	Helio dos Anjos

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
42', 1 - 0, Everton Morelli ⚽, Patrick Brey (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Junior Todinho ↓, Victor Andrade ↑,
46', Matheus Ribeiro ↓, Reginaldo ↑,
46', Wallace ↓, Guilherme Mariano ↑,
50', Gabriel Inocencio 🟨,
58', 1 - 1, Victor Andrade ⚽,
64', Luizao ↓, Guilherme Queiroz ↑,
64', Matheus Sales ↓, Rafael Gava ↑,
66', Luiz Felipe 🟨,
74', Kelvin ↓, Jefferson Nem ↑,
79', Wenderson ↓, Samuel Felix ↑,
79', Derek ↓, Felipe Saraiva ↑,
80', Ze Hugo ↓, Marcio Maranhao ↑,
87', Dodo ↓, Ramon ↑,
88', Marcio Maranhao 🟨,
90+2', Victor Andrade 🟨,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 10 and 8).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Náutico may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Botafogo SP: Carlao (Injury) Ericson (Knee Injury) Guilherme Mariano (Inactive) Guilherme Queiroz (Inactive) Hygor (Injury) Jonathan (Inactive) Rafael Gava (Injury) Victor Souza (Injury)

There will not play in Náutico: Paulo Sergio (Inactive)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Botafogo SP won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Including home match between the teams, Botafogo SP won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Outrights of Brazilian Serie B for now

Nautico: 0.3%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Nautico	31	11	9	11	39:38	1	42
16	Botafogo SP	32	10	8	14	36:38	-2	38

Last Results with these Odds

Botafogo SP - the odds 2.61 are the expected chance of winning is 35.35%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botafogo SP
Brazilian Serie B
22.04.26	Cuiabá - Botafogo SP	1:1 ✺
19.04.26	Botafogo SP - Atlético Goianiense	1:1 ✺
10.04.26	Criciúma - Botafogo SP	1:0 ✺
05.04.26	Botafogo SP - São Bernardo	1:2 ✺
01.04.26	América Mineiro - Botafogo SP	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TTLLW
- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
27.04.26	Athletic Club - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Náutico Capibaribe - São Bernardo	0:3 ✺
11.04.26	Ceará - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta	1:0 ✺
01.04.26	Atlético Goianiense - Náutico Capibaribe	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.3 WLLWW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie B
13.12.20	Botafogo SP - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1
12.09.20	Náutico Capibaribe - Botafogo SP	3:1

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