Match Info

Serie B - Round 5

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Eladio de Barros Carvalho (Aflitos) (Recife)

Referee: Furtado A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, Globoplay, Premiere, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Náutico Capibaribe		São Bernardo

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.5	4.75	Watch
	1.72	3.4	4.6
	1.72	3.45	4.75
	1.76	3.6	5.26
	1.74	3.46	5.04	Watch
	1.73	3.3	4.8
	1.73	3.55	4.82
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.72 ↓ (1.82)	3.47 ↑ (3.3)	4.86 ↑ (4.34)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Náutico Capibaribe
54%

Draw
26.8%

São Bernardo
19.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

50.7%

28%

21.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.9%

27%

22.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Náutico Capibaribe has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

São Bernardo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Náutico Capibaribe than the current prediction. (-5.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Náutico Capibaribe that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for São Bernardo than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Náutico Capibaribe - São Bernardo Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Náutico will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Muriel Becker (G) 14. Matheus Ribeiro 25. Mateus Silva 23. Igor Fernandes 6. Yuri 8. Wenderson 27. Luiz Felipe 77. Juninho 10. Dodo 7. Vinicius (C) 72. Derek	1. Alex Alves (G) 2. Rodrigo Ferreira 3. Helder Maciel 97. Augusto 6. Para 29. Pedrinho 8. Foguinho (C) 17. Romisson 26. Dudu Miraima 11. Pedro Vitor 89. Daniel Amorim
Substitutes
2. Arnaldo 5. Auremir 98. Felipe Saraiva 55. Guruceaga G. (G) 13. Indio 66. Leo Jance 9. Paulo Sergio 93. Reginaldo 41. Samuel Felix 11. Victor Andrade 22. Vitinho 34. Wanderson	27. Echapora 10. Fabricio Daniel 25. Gonzaga W. 21. Hugo Sanches 42. Hyoran 35. Jemerson 12. Junior Oliveira (G) 31. Lucas Fernandes 90. Luizao 77. Marcao Silva 19. Neto Costa 22. Pablo Dyego
Coaches
Helio dos Anjos	Ricardo Catala

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
1', Rodrigo Ferreira 🟨,
3', Vinicius (Penalty Awarded),
29', Alex Alves 🟨,
36', Dudu Miraima 🟨,
45+6', Foguinho 🟨,
45+6', Luiz Felipe 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Alex Alves ↓, Junior Oliveira ↑,
46', Pedrinho ↓, Echapora ↑,
46', Juninho ↓, Felipe Saraiva ↑,
62', Luiz Felipe ↓, Samuel Felix ↑,
64', 0 - 1, Pedro Vitor ⚽,
69', Dudu Miraima ↓, Jemerson ↑,
69', Daniel Amorim ↓, Pablo Dyego ↑,
73', Derek ↓, Paulo Sergio ↑,
73', Vinicius ↓, Victor Andrade ↑,
73', Wenderson ↓, Vitinho ↑,
77', Helder Maciel 🟨,
77', Junior Oliveira 🟨,
81', 0 - 2, Foguinho ⚽, Helder Maciel (A),
87', Pedro Vitor ↓, Hugo Sanches ↑,
88', 0 - 3, Pablo Dyego ⚽, Echapora (A),
90+8', Samuel Felix 🟨,

Preview

Náutico has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

São Bernardo has been struggling lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

São Bernardo may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Náutico is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Náutico: Betao (Inactive) Junior Todinho (Muscle Injury) Leonai Souza (Yellow Cards) Luiz Felipe (Inactive)

There will not play in São Bernardo: Mario Sergio (Inactive) Rodrigo Andrade (Injury)

There are questionable in São Bernardo: Matheus Salustiano (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Náutico won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 5:4. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Náutico won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
12	Sao Bernardo	32	12	9	11	44:34	10	45
13	Nautico	31	11	9	11	39:38	1	42

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Náutico Capibaribe
Brazilian Serie B
11.04.26	Ceará - Náutico Capibaribe	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Ponte Preta	1:0 ✺
01.04.26	Atlético Goianiense - Náutico Capibaribe	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Criciúma	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Pernambucano
08.03.26	Náutico Capibaribe - Sport Recife	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 LWWLL
- São Bernardo FC
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
15.04.26	São Bernardo - Cianorte	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
12.04.26	São Bernardo - Fortaleza	0:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Sul Sudeste
09.04.26	Grêmio Novorizontino - São Bernardo	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Serie B
05.04.26	Botafogo SP - São Bernardo	1:2 ✺
02.04.26	São Bernardo - Operário Ferroviario	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 LLLWL

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie C
24.08.25	São Bernardo - Náutico Capibaribe	1:1
21.04.24	Náutico Capibaribe - São Bernardo	1:1
26.08.23	Náutico Capibaribe - São Bernardo	2:2
Copa do Brasil
01.03.23	São Bernardo - Náutico Capibaribe	0:1

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