Match Info

efbet League - Round 22

Date: 23 February 2026, Monday

Location: Stadion Hristo Botev (Plovdiv)

Where to Watch on TV:


Bulgaria	Diema Sport, Play Diema Xtra


	Botev Plovdiv		Ludogorets Razgrad

	1	X	2
	7	4.33	1.39	Watch
	6.9	4.35	1.4	Watch
	5.83	3.82	1.56
	7.5	4.71	1.39	Watch
	6.5	4	1.4
	7.6	4.4	1.4	Watch
	6	4	1.52
Avarage Now (Initially)	6.76 ↑ (5.93)	4.23 ↑ (3.58)	1.44 ↓ (1.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Botev Plovdiv
13.7%

Draw
21.9%

Ludogorets Razgrad
64.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.4%

25.5%

59.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

15%

24.9%

60.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Botev Plovdiv has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.7%)

Ludogorets Razgrad has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Ludogorets Razgrad's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Botev Plovdiv than the current prediction. (+1.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ludogorets Razgrad than the current prediction. (-3.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
4.2%	1.4%	94.4%

Botev Plovdiv - Ludogorets Razgrad Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1, 2nd Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Ludogorets (1.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +1.5 - Botev Plovdiv (1.53) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 0.75, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Ludogorets Razgrad will win (68 of 72 users predict this - 94.44%).
Confidence interval (95%): 89.15% – 99.73%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Ludogorets Razgrad will win (31 of 31 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 33 Selected Experts predict this event. Botev Plovdiv (votes: 1 - 3%). Ludogorets (votes: 32 - 97%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
29. Naumov D. (G) 17. Minkov N. (C) 42. Videv I. 4. Soldo N. 27. Hein B. 45. Martinho da Silva E. 14. Algarra C. 90. Kalu S. 7. Iliev N. 11. Pedro Igor 30. Mascote	1. Padt S. (G) 17. Son 55. Nachmias I. 4. Almeida D. 3. Nedyalkov A. 30. Pedro Naressi 23. Duarte D. 77. Erick Marcus 18. Chochev I. 11. Caio Vidal 12. Rwan Cruz
Substitutes
38. Balogiannis K. . Conte A. 77. Lucas Araujo 9. Maras A. 2. Noga G. 87. Petrov S. 1. Slavkov H. (G) 13. Tsonov S. 19. Zlatanov G.	29. Bile E. 39. Bonmann H. (G) 9. Duah K. 99. Ivanov S. 26. Kaloc F. 14. Stanic P. 37. Tekpetey B. 24. Verdon O. 27. Vinicius Nogueira
Coaches
Baltanov L.	Hogmo P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
29', Martinho da Silva E. 🟨,
35', Nedyalkov A. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Erick Marcus ↓, Stanic P. ↑,
46', Martinho da Silva E. ↓, Lucas Araujo ↑,
48', 1 - 0, Minkov N. ⚽,
51', Kalu S. 🟨,
57', Iliev N. 🟨,
61', Duarte D. ↓, Tekpetey B. ↑,
61', Nedyalkov A. ↓, Vinicius Nogueira ↑,
61', Caio Vidal ↓, Duah K. ↑,
62', Hein B. ↓, Balogiannis K. ↑,
67', Kalu S. ↓, Conte A. ↑,
68', Almeida D. 🟨,
81', 1 - 1, Nachmias I. ⚽,
82', Soldo N. 🟥,
88', Pedro Igor ↓, Tsonov S. ↑,
88', Mascote ↓, Maras A. ↑,
89', Balogiannis K. 🟨,
90', Conte A. 🟨,
90+1', Rwan Cruz ↓, Kaloc F. ↑,
90+3', 2 - 1, Algarra C. ⚽,
90+6', Tsonov S. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 11 in the zone efbet League (Relegation Group: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ efbet League (Championship Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Botev Plovdiv won 0.

In recent matches, Botev Plovdiv has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Ludogorets is showing excellent form with consecutive wins (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Botev Plovdiv may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ludogorets is the obvious favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Botev Plovdiv won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 17 matches, and goals 15:43. (average 0.8:2.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Botev Plovdiv won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 4:18. (average 0.5:2.3).

Outrights of Bulgarian Parva Liga for now

Ludogorets: 30.04% Botev Plovdiv: 0.43%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Ludogorets	9	7	2	0	16:7	9	23
6	Botev Plovdiv	10	5	1	4	16:14	2	16

Last Results with these Odds

Ludogorets Razgrad - the odds 1.54 are the expected chance of winning is 59.14%, but this team recently wins 70% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Botev Plovdiv
Bulgarian Parva Liga
15.02.26	Levski Sofia - Botev Plovdiv	3:0 ✺
Bulgarian Cup
12.02.26	Lokomotiv Plovdiv - Botev Plovdiv	1:0 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
08.02.26	Botev Plovdiv - Beroe Stara Zagora	0:0 ✺
Club Friendly
28.01.26	Botev Plovdiv - Spartak Varna	1:0 ✺
24.01.26	Botev Plovdiv - Obolon	Canceled ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLTW?
- Ludogorets Razgrad
UEFA Europa League
19.02.26	Ludogorets Razgrad - Ferencvárosi	2:1 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
15.02.26	Ludogorets Razgrad - Beroe Stara Zagora	2:1 ✺
Bulgarian Cup
11.02.26	Ludogorets Razgrad - Levski Sofia	1:0 ✺
Bulgarian Parva Liga
07.02.26	Lokomotiv Sofia - Ludogorets Razgrad	1:3 ✺
Bulgarian Super Cup
03.02.26	Levski Sofia - Ludogorets Razgrad	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.7 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Bulgarian Parva Liga
31.08.25	Ludogorets Razgrad - Botev Plovdiv	2:1
Bulgarian Cup
27.02.25	Ludogorets Razgrad - Botev Plovdiv	1:0 penalties
Bulgarian Super Cup
04.02.25	Ludogorets Razgrad - Botev Plovdiv	3:2
Bulgarian Parva Liga
19.12.24	Botev Plovdiv - Ludogorets Razgrad	2:4
08.12.24	Ludogorets Razgrad - Botev Plovdiv	3:0
Bulgarian Cup
15.05.24	Ludogorets Razgrad - Botev Plovdiv	2:3
Bulgarian Parva Liga
10.03.24	Botev Plovdiv - Ludogorets Razgrad	0:2

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