Match Info

Liga Portugal - Round 4

Date: 31 August 2026, Monday

Location: Estádio Municipal de Braga (Braga)

Referee: Narciso A. (Por)

Where to Watch on TV:


Austria	Laola1
Brazil	Disney+
Denmark	Bold+
France	beIN Connect, beIN Sports MAX 5
Germany	Laola1
Greece	COSMOTE Sport 2
Portugal	Sport TV1
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Braga		Vitoria Guimarães

	1	X	2
	1.81	3.4	4.33	Watch
	1.82	3.40	4.33
	1.85	3.3	4.25	Watch
	1.9	3.52	4.56
	1.87	3.45	4.39	Watch
	1.85	3.4	4.45
	1.92	3.54	4.42	Watch
	1.84	3.4	4.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.86 ↑ (1.63)	3.43 ↓ (3.79)	4.38 ↓ (5.08)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Braga
50.9%

Draw
27.6%

Vitoria Guimarães
21.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.1%

24.6%

18.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

59.1%

23.8%

17.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Braga has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Braga's form might have worsened.

Vitoria Guimarães has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Braga than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Braga, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Vitoria Guimarães than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
85%	15%	0%

Braga - Vitoria Guimarães Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Braga (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (1.92) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Guimarães (1.91) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Braga will win (17 of 20 users predict this - 85%).
Confidence interval (95%): 69.35% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Braga (votes: 1 - 50%). Guimarães (votes: 1 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Bernardo (G) 14. Lagerbielke G. 6. Vitor Carvalho 22. Sergio Barcia 2. Gomez V. 34. Tiknaz D. E. 8. Moutinho J. (C) 7. Travassos 20. Dorgeles M. 11. Gabriel Silva 10. Victor P.	48. Zych O. (G) 23. Strata T. 4. Rivas Viondi O. 28. Thiago Balieiro 13. Mendes J. 8. Nogueira G. 44. Doucet L. 11. Gustavo 20. Samu (C) 17. Nogueira M. 24. Ndoye A.
Substitutes
44. Bajrami A. 37. Barisic A. 78. Carvalho J. (G) 90. Luisinho 16. Marques T. 77. Martinez G. 17. Milosevic J. 9. Navarro F. 53. Noro J. 50. Rodrigues D. 12. Sa T. (G) 87. Trovisco J.	19. Andersson V. 18. Arcanjo T. 7. Camara O. 22. Castillo J. (G) 82. Dias F. 2. Maga 6. Mitrovic M. 15. Mosquera Y. 16. Mukendi B. 29. Ouotro P. 5. Sidibe A. 56. Verdi S.
Coaches
Vicens C.	Margarido T.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
4', Rivas Viondi O. 🟨,
37', Tiknaz D. E. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
53', Strata T. 🟨,
54', (Penalty overturned),
62', Nogueira M. ↓, Camara O. ↑,
62', Nogueira G. ↓, Mukendi B. ↑,
65', Victor P. ↓, Milosevic J. ↑,
68', Vitor Carvalho 🟨,
72', Dorgeles M. ↓, Rodrigues D. ↑,
72', Tiknaz D. E. ↓, Marques T. ↑,
75', Gustavo 🟨,
76', Gustavo ↓, Andersson V. ↑,
77', Ndoye A. ↓, Ouotro P. ↑,
79', 1 - 0, Rodrigues D. ⚽, Gabriel Silva (A),
84', Samu ↓, Arcanjo T. ↑,
86', Travassos ↓, Navarro F. ↑,
86', Gabriel Silva ↓, Bajrami A. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Braga won 2.

Braga is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Guimarães's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Braga may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Guimarães has had a series of home games.

In this match, Braga is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Braga: Niakate S. (Achilles Tendon Injury) Wind J. (Inactive)

There will not play in Guimarães: Gui (Injury)

There are questionable in Braga: Arrey-Mbi B. (Injury)

There are questionable in Guimarães: Doucet L. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Braga won 11 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 33:20. (average 1.7:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Braga won 7 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 17:10. (average 1.7:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Braga	7	3	2	2	8:8	0	11
14	Vitoria Guimaraes	7	1	2	4	5:8	-3	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Braga
UEFA Europa Conference League
27.08.26	Austria Wien - Braga	0:0 ✺
20.08.26	Braga - Austria Wien	2:0 ✺
13.08.26	Dinamo Minsk - Braga	0:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
09.08.26	Moreirense - Braga	2:2 ✺
UEFA Europa Conference League
06.08.26	Braga - Dinamo Minsk	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.6 TWTTW
- Vitoria Guimarães
Liga Portugal
23.08.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Nacional	1:0 ✺
14.08.26	Sporting Lisbon - Vitoria Guimarães	3:2 ✺
08.08.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Arouca	0:1 ✺
Club Friendly
01.08.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Chaves	2:0 ✺
26.07.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Nottingham Forest	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.6 WLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Liga Portugal
21.02.26	Braga - Vitoria Guimarães	3:2
Portuguese League Cup
10.01.26	Vitoria Guimarães - Braga	2:1
Liga Portugal
20.09.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Braga	1:1
16.02.25	Vitoria Guimarães - Braga	0:0
Portuguese League Cup
31.10.24	Braga - Vitoria Guimarães	2:1
Liga Portugal
15.09.24	Braga - Vitoria Guimarães	0:2
11.05.24	Vitoria Guimarães - Braga	2:3

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