Match Info

Serie D - Round 5

Date: 2 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estádio Bento Freitas (Pelotas)


	Brasil de Pelotas		Náutico Marcílio Dias

	1	X	2
	2.15	2.81	3.7
	2.31	2.69	3.55	Watch
	2.15	2.6	3.6
	2.35	2.82	3.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.24 ↓ (2.32)	2.73 ↓ (2.8)	3.58 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brasil de Pelotas
40.9%

Draw
33.5%

Náutico Marcílio Dias
25.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.8%

32.2%

29%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brasil de Pelotas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Náutico Marcílio Dias has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Brasil de Pelotas - Náutico Marcílio Dias Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 1)
57', 0 - 1, Reginaldo ⚽,

Preview

In recent matches, Marcílio Dias has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Recently, Marcílio Dias has had a series of home games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Brasil de Pelotas won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Brasil de Pelotas won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Náutico Marcílio Dias - the odds 3.1 are the expected chance of winning is 29.04%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brasil de Pelotas
Brazilian Serie D
25.04.26	EC São José Porto Alegre - Brasil de Pelotas	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Brasil de Pelotas - São-Joseense	2:0 ✺
12.04.26	Blumenau - Brasil de Pelotas	3:2 ✺
05.04.26	Brasil de Pelotas - Azuriz	2:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa FGF
30.11.25	Brasil de Pelotas - Aimoré	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 TWLWW
- Náutico Marcílio Dias
Brazilian Serie D
25.04.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Blumenau	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - EC São José Porto Alegre	2:1 ✺
11.04.26	Azuriz - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:1 ✺
05.04.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - São-Joseense	0:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
06.03.26	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Joinville	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.8 LWTTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie D
14.06.25	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Brasil de Pelotas	1:2
25.05.25	Brasil de Pelotas - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:2
28.11.20	Náutico Marcílio Dias - Brasil de Pelotas	1:0
19.09.20	Brasil de Pelotas - Náutico Marcílio Dias	1:0

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