Match Info

Ligue 1 - Round 4

Date: 13 September 2026, Sunday

Location: Stade Francis-Le Blé (Brest)

Referee: Delajod W. (Fra)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Brest		Paris Saint-Germain

	1	X	2
	12	6.5	1.22	Watch
	9.75	7.00	1.25
	12.5	6.6	1.21	Watch
	11.89	7.3	1.24
	11.39	7.31	1.24	Watch
	11	6.85	1.23
	12.8	6.59	1.23	Watch
	11	7.6	1.24
Avarage Now (Initially)	11.54 ↑ (8.09)	6.97 ↑ (5.41)	1.23 ↓ (1.33)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.75

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brest
8.3%

Draw
13.8%

Paris Saint-Germain
77.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

11.7%

17.4%

70.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

12.5%

16.3%

66.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brest has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.4%)

Paris Saint-Germain has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Paris Saint-Germain's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Brest than the current prediction. (+4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paris Saint-Germain than the current prediction. (-11.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Paris Saint-Germain, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	6.9%	93.1%

Brest - Paris Saint Germain Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (1.78) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1 - PSG (1.31) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Paris Saint-Germain will win (27 of 29 users predict this - 93.1%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.88% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Paris Saint-Germain will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. PSG (votes: 6 - 85.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 14.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Selvik E. (G) 70. Lala K. 71. Le Guen R. 4. Lloris G. 2. Locko B. 13. Chotard J. 8. Magnetti H. (C) 10. Versini G. 23. Doumbia K. 9. Mboup P. 19. Ajorque L.	39. Safonov M. (G) 2. Hakimi A. 5. Marquinhos (C) 51. Pacho W. 25. Mendes N. 33. Zaire-Emery W. 17. Vitinha 87. Neves J. 10. Dembele O. 9. Torres F. 7. Kvaratskhelia K.
Substitutes
18. Bourgault J. 21. Kante I. Y. 32. Laine M. L. C. 33. Monchatre E. 39. N'Guessan D. 7. Nonge J. 30. Patouillet M. (G) 29. Tousart L. 20. Zogbe L.	11. Akliouche M. 4. Beraldo L. 30. Chevalier L. (G) 12. Digne L. 14. Doue D. 27. Fernandez D. 22. Godts M. 21. Hernandez L. 8. Ruiz F.
Coaches
Lachuer J.	Luis Enrique

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Torres F. ⚽, Dembele O. (A),
30', Doumbia K. 🟨,
39', Hakimi A. ↓, Ruiz F. ↑,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
66', Dembele O. ↓, Akliouche M. ↑,
66', Kvaratskhelia K. ↓, Doue D. ↑,
66', Versini G. ↓, Nonge J. ↑,
77', Zaire-Emery W. ↓, Fernandez D. ↑,
77', Torres F. ↓, Godts M. ↑,
78', Chotard J. ↓, Tousart L. ↑,
78', Doumbia K. ↓, N'Guessan D. ↑,
84', Vitinha 🟨,
87', Fernandez D. 🟨,
88', Locko B. ↓, Bourgault J. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Brest won 0.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

PSG may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, PSG is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Brest: Cagnon R. (Shoulder Injury) Chardonnet B. (Calf Injury) Diambou M. (Ankle Injury) Edjouma N. (Muscle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Brest won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 19 matches, and goals 15:57. (average 0.8:2.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Brest won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 10:32. (average 1:3.2).

Outrights of French Ligue 1 for now

PSG: 70.91% Brest: 0.35%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	PSG	5	2	2	1	8:7	1	8
11	Brest	5	1	2	2	7:8	-1	5

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Stade Brestois 29
French Ligue 1
05.09.26	Le Havre - Brest	1:2 ✺
29.08.26	Brest - Toulouse	2:2 ✺
22.08.26	Le Mans - Brest	2:2 ✺
Club Friendly
16.08.26	Nottingham Forest - Brest	2:0 ✺
08.08.26	Brest - Venezia	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 WTTLT
- Paris Saint-Germain
UEFA Champions League
09.09.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Slovan Bratislava	6:1 ✺
French Ligue 1
04.09.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Monaco	1:2 ✺
28.08.26	Lille - Paris Saint-Germain	2:2 ✺
23.08.26	Rennes - Paris Saint-Germain	2:2 ✺
French Super Cup
16.08.26	Lens - Paris Saint-Germain	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WLTTL

Latest Head to Head

French Ligue 1
10.05.26	Paris Saint-Germain - Brest	1:0
25.10.25	Brest - Paris Saint-Germain	0:3
UEFA Champions League
19.02.25	Paris Saint-Germain - Brest	7:0
11.02.25	Brest - Paris Saint-Germain	0:3
French Ligue 1
01.02.25	Brest - Paris Saint-Germain	2:5
14.09.24	Paris Saint-Germain - Brest	3:1
Coupe De France
07.02.24	Paris Saint-Germain - Brest	3:1

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