Match Info

NPL Queensland - Round 20

Date: 2 August 2026, Sunday

Location: AJ Kelly Park (Brisbane)

Where to Watch on TV:


Australia	FQTV


	Brisbane Roar U23		Moreton City Excelsior

	1	X	2
	4.80	4.75	1.49
	4.65	4.75	1.46
	5.05	5.26	1.48
	4.94	5.32	1.47	Watch
	5	5.15	1.43
	4.95	4.95	1.5	Watch
	4.7	4.8	1.47
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.87 ↓ (5.3)	5 ↑ (4.7)	1.47 ↑ (1.38)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 6.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brisbane Roar U23
18.9%

Draw
18.4%

Moreton City Excelsior
62.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.8%

18.9%

64.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.3%

18.3%

66.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brisbane Roar U23 has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

Moreton City Excelsior has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brisbane Roar U23 than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Moreton City Excelsior than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Brisbane Roar U23 - Moreton City Excelsior Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
32', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
50', 🟥,
72', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 12 in the zone Relegation ~ Queensland Premier League and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ NPL Queensland (Play Offs: )).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Brisbane Roar U23 may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Brisbane Roar U23 has had a series of away games.

In this match, Moreton City is considered a favorite.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Brisbane Roar U23 won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:12. (average 0.8:3).

Including home matches between the teams, Brisbane Roar U23 won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:5. (average 1:2.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brisbane Roar U23
Australian NPL Queensland
19.07.26	Olympic FC - Brisbane Roar U23	3:1 ✺
10.07.26	Brisbane Roar U23 - Rochedale Rovers	4:1 ✺
05.07.26	Brisbane City - Brisbane Roar U23	1:1 ✺
27.06.26	Peninsula Power - Brisbane Roar U23	3:1 ✺
20.06.26	Gold Coast United - Brisbane Roar U23	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.2 LWTLW
- Moreton City Excelsior
Australian NPL Queensland
18.07.26	Moreton City Excelsior - Peninsula Power	2:2 ✺
11.07.26	Moreton City Excelsior - Magic United	4:3 ✺
04.07.26	Gold Coast Knights - Moreton City Excelsior	2:1 ✺
28.06.26	Gold Coast United - Moreton City Excelsior	0:1 ✺
20.06.26	Moreton City Excelsior - Wynnum Wolves	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.7 TWLWT

Latest Head to Head

Australian NPL Queensland
25.04.26	Moreton City Excelsior - Brisbane Roar U23	6:0
21.06.25	Moreton City Excelsior - Brisbane Roar U23	1:1
22.03.25	Brisbane Roar U23 - Moreton City Excelsior	1:2
02.06.24	Brisbane Roar U23 - Moreton City Excelsior	1:3

Brisbane Roar U23 - Moreton City Excelsior: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide