Match Info

Primera B - Round 15

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Lorenzo Arandilla (Adrogue)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	LPF Play


	Brown de Adrogué		Sportivo Italiano

	1	X	2
	3	2.65	2.4
	3	2.72	2.42	Watch
	2.99	2.88	2.48
	3.14	2.57	2.59	Watch
	3.1	2.5	2.5
	3.07	2.7	2.48
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.05 ↓ (3.23)	2.67 ↓ (2.68)	2.48 ↑ (2.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 8.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Brown de Adrogué
29.6%

Draw
33.9%

Sportivo Italiano
36.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28.3%

34.2%

37.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.9%

33.7%

38.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Brown de Adrogué has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Sportivo Italiano has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Brown de Adrogué than the current prediction. (-1.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sportivo Italiano than the current prediction. (+1.6%)

Brown de Adrogué - Sportivo Italiano Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Giovini S. (G) 2. Aguirre C. 9. Baez B. 7. Bogado J. 6. Irusta L. 3. Ortiz A. 11. Padovani O. 8. Patrizio T. 4. Pieres M. 5. Robles E. 10. Sproat M. (C)	1. Yordan G. (G) 8. Centurion F. 2. Durante P. 3. Fantino L. 7. Gimenez K. 10. Gomez F. 4. Guzman L. 9. Guzman M. 11. Laborda L. 6. Merzario E. 5. Rivero J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
17', Sproat M. 🟨,
18', Gomez F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Di Massimo F. ↓, Zurita A. ↑,
46', Padovani O. ↓, Visco A. ↑,
57', Gimenez K. ↓, De Cuadro J. ↑,
60', Irusta L. 🟨,
63', Bogado J. ↓, Cardozo D. ↑,
68', Laborda L. ↓, Caceres P. ↑,
69', Sproat M. ↓, Meaurio N. ↑,
77', 🟨,
85', Centurion F. ↓, Guerra A. ↑,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 18 and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera B (Promotion ~ Play Offs: )).

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Brown de Adrogué won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Brown de Adrogué won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0. (average 1:0).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Sportivo Italiano	38	18	11	9	45:28	17	65
19	Brown Adrogue	38	8	15	15	24:37	-13	39

Last Results with these Odds

Brown de Adrogué - the odds 3.23 are the expected chance of winning is 28.34%, but this team recently wins 15% of matches with these odds.

Sportivo Italiano - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 37.51%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Brown de Adrogué
Argentinian Primera B
02.05.26	San Martín de Burzaco - Brown de Adrogué	0:0 ✺
25.04.26	Brown de Adrogué - Villa San Carlos	2:1 ✺
19.04.26	Liniers - Brown de Adrogué	1:0 ✺
14.04.26	Brown de Adrogué - Real Pilar	1:1 ✺
10.04.26	UAI Urquiza - Brown de Adrogué	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.4 TWLTW
- Sportivo Italiano
Argentinian Primera B
02.05.26	Sportivo Italiano - Deportivo Armenio	1:0 ✺
25.04.26	Deportivo Flandria - Sportivo Italiano	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Sportivo Italiano - Argentino de Quilmes	2:1 ✺
14.04.26	Defensores Unidos - Sportivo Italiano	2:0 ✺
11.04.26	Sportivo Italiano - Comunicaciones	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.3 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Argentinian Primera B
19.07.25	Sportivo Italiano - Brown de Adrogué	4:0
23.04.25	Brown de Adrogué - Sportivo Italiano	0:0
08.07.15	Sportivo Italiano - Brown de Adrogué	0:2
22.02.15	Brown de Adrogué - Sportivo Italiano	2:0

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