Match Info

Ukrainian Cup - 1/16-finals

Date: 18 September 2025, Thursday

Location: Bukovyna Stadium (Chernivtsi)


	Bukovyna Chernivtsi		Karpaty Lviv

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.45	3.2	2.05
	3.36	3.25	2.06
	3.44	3.20	2.14	Watch
	3.42	3.3	2.09	Watch
	3.6	3.2	1.92
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.45 ↓ (4.34)	3.23 ↓ (3.55)	2.05 ↑ (1.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bukovyna Chernivtsi
26.6%

Draw
28.5%

Karpaty Lviv
44.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.5%

26.2%

52.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.6%

28.7%

57.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bukovyna Chernivtsi has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Bukovyna Chernivtsi's performance.

Karpaty Lviv has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Karpaty Lviv might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bukovyna Chernivtsi than the current prediction. (-7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Bukovyna Chernivtsi that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Karpaty Lviv than the current prediction. (+12.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Karpaty Lviv could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Bukovyna Chernivtsi - Karpaty Lviv Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Karpaty (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Karpaty (1.77) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Karpaty (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
94. Penkov G. (G) 95. Stasyuk P. 24. Busko A. 3. Bezuglyy M. 4. Sakiv T. 44. Vitenchuk V. 12. Pidlepenets Y. 22. Plaksa R. 10. Boychuk B. (C) 8. Dakhnovskyi V. 7. Kozhushko O.	1. Domchak N. (G) 3. Adamyuk V. 4. Baboglo V. 47. Jean Pedroso 11. Miroshnichenko D. (C) 21. Tanda P. 17. Fedor O. 18. Klymenko V. 19. Karabin Y. 95. Krasnopir I. 26. Kostenko Y.
Substitutes
17. Andreychuk A. . Dashkovets A. 21. Girnyi M. 77. Glushchuk Y. 25. Grusha V. 30. Kanevtsev D. (G) 19. Kilyevyi A. 20. Koltsov V. 74. Morgovskyi Y. 14. Shynkarenko D. . Skochelyas D. 27. Tyshchenko I.	23. Alvarez P. 37. Bruninho 8. Chachua A. 9. Fabiano 30. Klishchuk A. (G) 2. Kyrychok M. 80. Mysak R. (G) 10. Neves I. 25. Palacios D. 7. Paulo V. 28. Polegenko P. 33. Shakh A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', 1 - 0, Kozhushko O. ⚽,
34', Dakhnovskyi V. 🟨,
39', Baboglo V. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Karabin Y. ↓, Paulo V. ↑,
58', Kozhushko O. ↓, Tyshchenko I. ↑,
58', Plaksa R. ↓, Grusha V. ↑,
59', Klymenko V. 🟨,
72', Kostenko Y. ↓, Fabiano ↑,
72', Tanda P. ↓, Chachua A. ↑,
78', Pidlepenets Y. ↓, Shynkarenko D. ↑,
79', Dakhnovskyi V. ↓, Kilyevyi A. ↑,

Preview

Bukovyna has shown excellent form with a series of wins in recent matches (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In recent matches, Karpaty has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Karpaty may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Karpaty is a strong favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Bukovyna won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 5:9. (average 1:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Bukovyna won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:3. (average 0.5:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bukovyna Chernivtsi
Ukrainian Persha Liga
12.09.25	Bukovyna Chernivtsi - Chernihiv	4:1 ✺
05.09.25	Prykarpattia Ivano-Frankivsk - Bukovyna Chernivtsi	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	Bukovyna Chernivtsi - Viktoriya Sumy	2:0 ✺
15.08.25	Probiy Horodenka - Bukovyna Chernivtsi	3:4 ✺
09.08.25	Bukovyna Chernivtsi - Ahrobiznes Volochysk	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WWWWT
- Karpaty Lviv
Ukrainian Premier League
14.09.25	Karpaty Lviv - Poltava	1:1 ✺
29.08.25	Kudrivka - Karpaty Lviv	2:2 ✺
Ukrainian Cup
24.08.25	Penuel - Karpaty Lviv	0:8 ✺
Ukrainian Premier League
16.08.25	Kolos Kovalivka - Karpaty Lviv	1:1 ✺
10.08.25	Karpaty Lviv - Shakhtar Donetsk	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Ukrainian Persha Liga
08.10.23	Bukovyna Chernivtsi - Karpaty Lviv	0:1
06.08.23	Karpaty Lviv - Bukovyna Chernivtsi	2:1
30.10.22	Bukovyna Chernivtsi - Karpaty Lviv	1:2
11.09.22	Karpaty Lviv - Bukovyna Chernivtsi	4:0
Ukrainian Druha Liga
13.11.20	Karpaty Lviv - Bukovyna Chernivtsi	0:3

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