Match Info

UEFA Nations League - League C - Round 1

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Stadion Hristo Botev (Plovdiv)

Referee: van der Eijk S. (Ned)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	DStv Now, SuperSport MaXimo 1, SuperSport MaXimo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Argentina	Disney+
Armenia	Fast Sports
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 2, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Austria	DAZN
Azerbaijan	CBC Sport
Belgium	BNT News App
Bosnia-and-herzegovina	Arena Premium 1, Arena Sport 1, Arena Sport 4P
Brazil	Disney+, ESPN
Bulgaria	BNT 1, BNT 3
Canada	DAZN Canada, fubo Sports Network
Croatia	MAXtv To Go, SportKlub 3
Cyprus	Cytavision on the Go, Cytavision Sports 4, Cytavision Sports 4
Denmark	TV2 Play
Estonia	Go3 Extra Sports
Europe	UEFA TV
Finland	MTV Katsomo+
France	L'Equipe Live Foot
Georgia	Silk Sport 3
Germany	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	Nova Sports 4
Hungary	TV2 Play Premium
Iceland	Viaplay
India	JioTV app, Sony LIV, Sony Sports TEN 2, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision
Italy	Sky Sport Calcio
Japan	DAZN Japan
Kenya	Gotv
Kosovo	Arena Premium 2
Lithuania	Go3 Extra Sports
Luxembourg	RTL 2, RTL 2
Maldives	Medianet
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
New-zealand	beIN Connect
Nigeria	Supersport Maximo 1, Supersport Maximo 2, SuperSport Premier League
Norway	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Pakistan	Tapmad
Peru	Disney+
Romania	Digi Online, Digi Sport 2, Orange TV Go, Prima Sport 1
Russia	Okko Sport
Serbia	Arena Premium 2
South-africa	Supersport Maximo 1, SuperSport Premier League
South-america	ViX Latin America
South-korea	SPOTV Now
Spain	DAZN Espana
Sweden	Viaplay
Switzerland	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	Exxen
Ukraine	MEGOGO Futbol 4, MEGOGO Ukraine
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	Fox Soccer Plus
Venezuela	Disney+


	Bulgaria		Luxembourg

	1	X	2
	2.55	2.7	3.3
	2.30	2.87	3.25
	2.35	2.78	3.35
	2.62	2.87	3.3
	2.46	2.83	3.42	Watch
	2.55	2.75	3.25
	2.51	2.86	3.54	Watch
	2.55	2.8	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.49 ↑ (1.99)	2.81 ↓ (3.25)	3.32 ↓ (4.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bulgaria
38%

Draw
33.6%

Luxembourg
28.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.5%

29.1%

23.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bulgaria has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.5%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Bulgaria's form might have worsened.

Luxembourg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
64.5%	19.4%	16.1%

Bulgaria - Luxembourg Predictions

Users Predictions: 31 users predict this event. Bulgaria will win (votes: 20 - 64.5%). Luxembourg will win (votes: 5 - 16.1%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 19.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Bulgaria: 47.7% – 81.3%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 1.5 - over (1.60) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Bulgaria will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Naumov D. (G) Botev Plovdiv 19. Turitsov I. Dinamo Batumi 5. Dimitrov K. (C) Levski Sofia 15. Ivanov T. CSKA Sofia 21. Velkovski D. Arda 6. Tsenov E. Orenburg 4. Gruev I. Leeds 11. Rusev G. CSKA 1948 Sofia 14. Chandarov A. Botev Plovdiv 10. Dimitrov Z. Mardin 1969 20. Petkov L. Elversberg	1. Moris A. (G) Al Khaleej 18. Jans L. (C) SK Beveren 3. Mahmutovic E. Dinamo Batumi 13. Carlson D. Dinamo Batumi 4. Bohnert F. Hansa Rostock 6. de Sousa T. Bodrumspor 16. Barreiro L. Benfica 11. Thill V. Mannheim 10. Sinani D. Sampdoria 7. Dardari A. RW Essen 17. Kadamani H. Metz
Substitutes
18. Balov K. Crvena zvezda 23. Bozhev A. (G) CSKA 1948 Sofia 3. Hristov A. Vizela 9. Ivanov S. Arda 8. Kraev A. Hapoel Tel Aviv 17. Minchev M. Cracovia 12. Mitov D. (G) St. Pauli 7. Panayotov P. CSKA Sofia 16. Petkov M. Al Taawon 22. Stoyanov K. Slavia Sofia 2. Stoyanov Y. H. Beer Sheva 13. Velkov S. Sonderjyske	2. Dzogovic E. Magdeburg 23. Fox L. (G) Bocholt 8. Goncalves M. Dusseldorf 22. Martins M. FK Liepaja 15. Natami O. UNA Strassen 19. Olesen M. Sonderjyske 12. Pereira Cardoso T. (G) RAAL La Louviere 20. Rupil T. Helsingborg 5. Selimovic V. Iberia 1999 21. Thill S. Differdange 14. Veiga E. Bissen 9. Videira J. Mainz
Coaches
Dimitrov A.	Strasser J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
18', 1 - 0, Chandarov A. ⚽, Velkovski D. (A),
28', Petkov L. 🟨,
35', Tsenov E. 🟨,
37', 1 - 1, Barreiro L. ⚽,
45+2', de Sousa T. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Sinani D. ↓, Rupil T. ↑,
46', Rusev G. ↓, Ivanov S. ↑,
56', Chandarov A. ↓, Minchev M. ↑,
65', 1 - 2, Thill V. ⚽,
68', Tsenov E. ↓, Panayotov P. ↑,
68', Dimitrov Z. ↓, Petkov M. ↑,
72', Thill V. ↓, Olesen M. ↑,
82', Ivanov T. ↓, Velkov S. ↑,
83', Carlson D. 🟨,
83', Kadamani H. ↓, Thill S. ↑,
83', Dardari A. ↓, Videira J. ↑,
90+1', de Sousa T. ↓, Goncalves M. ↑,

Preview

Bulgaria is ranked FIFA: 85., and Luxembourg is ranked FIFA: 98..

Bulgaria is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 5 head-to-head meetings, Bulgaria has recorded 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 6:4 (averaging 1.2:0.8 goals per game).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bulgaria
Friendly
05.06.26	Moldova - Bulgaria	2:2 ✺
01.06.26	Bulgaria - Montenegro	0:1 ✺
FIFA Series
30.03.26	Indonesia - Bulgaria	0:1 ✺
27.03.26	Solomon Islands - Bulgaria	2:10 ✺
FIFA World Cup
18.11.25	Bulgaria - Georgia	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 TLWWW
- Luxembourg
Friendly
06.06.26	Albania - Luxembourg	0:1 ✺
03.06.26	Luxembourg - Italy	0:1 ✺
UEFA Nations League
31.03.26	Luxembourg - Malta	3:0 ✺
26.03.26	Malta - Luxembourg	0:2 ✺
FIFA World Cup
17.11.25	Northern Ireland - Luxembourg	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.5 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

UEFA Nations League
15.11.24	Luxembourg - Bulgaria	0:1
12.10.24	Bulgaria - Luxembourg	0:0
Friendly
20.11.22	Luxembourg - Bulgaria	0:0
FIFA World Cup
10.10.17	Luxembourg - Bulgaria	1:1
06.09.16	Bulgaria - Luxembourg	4:3

Bulgaria - Luxembourg: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide