Match Info

World Cup - Qualification

Date: 17 November 2025, Monday 🏁 Finished

Location: Windsor Park (Belfast) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Tohver K. (Est)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Africa	—	DStv Now, Supersport Action, SuperSport Football
Argentina	16:45	Disney+
Armenia	23:45	Fast Sports
Asia	—	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 6, TOD
Australia	06:45	Stan Sport
Austria	20:45	DAZN
Brazil	16:45	Disney+
Bulgaria	21:45	Nova Sport
Canada	14:45	DAZN Canada
China	03:45	iQIYI, ZhiBo8
Denmark	20:45	TV2 Play
Europe	—	UEFA TV
Finland	21:45	MTV Katsomo+
Germany	20:45	DAZN Deutsch
Greece	21:45	Nova Sports Start
Iceland	19:45	Viaplay
Ireland	19:45	Virgin Media Player, Virgin Media Two
Japan	04:45	DAZN Japan
Kenya	22:45	Gotv
Luxembourg	20:45	RTL, RTL
Mexico	13:45	Sky Sport
New Zealand	08:45	Sky Sport 7
Nigeria	20:45	SuperSport Action
Norway	20:45	TV2 Play, Viaplay
Peru	14:45	Disney+
Slovenia	20:45	SportKlub 6
South Africa	21:45	SuperSport Football
South America	—	ViX Latin America
Sweden	20:45	Viaplay
Switzerland	20:45	DAZN Switzerland
Turkey	22:45	Exxen
United Kingdom	19:45	BBC iPlayer, BBC One, BBC Sport, BBC Three, BBC Two, Virgin TV Go app
Uruguay	16:45	Disney+
Venezuela	15:45	Disney+
Vietnam	02:45	TV 360


	Northern Ireland		Luxembourg

	1	X	2
	1.91	3.1	4.75
	1.85	3.2	4.95
	1.94	3.16	5.05
	1.35	4.96	9.05	Watch
	1.96	3.18	4.87	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.8 ↑ (1.34)	3.52 ↓ (5.4)	5.73 ↓ (9)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Northern Ireland
54.8%

Draw
28%

Luxembourg
17.2%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

71.6%

17.8%

10.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Northern Ireland has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-16.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Northern Ireland's form might have worsened.

Luxembourg has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Luxembourg's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
79.4%	11.1%	9.5%

Northern Ireland - Luxembourg Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1.25 - Northern Ireland (2.05) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Luxembourg (1.90) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

AH -1.5 - Luxembourg (12.50) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB - Luxembourg (4.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -2, 2nd Half - Luxembourg (91.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -2, 1st Half - Luxembourg (101.00) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

EH -2 - Luxembourg (52.33) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75, 2nd Half - Luxembourg (7.80) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -0.75, 1st Half - Luxembourg (8.30) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

H/A, 1st Half - Luxembourg (3.55) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB, 2nd Half - Luxembourg (3.18) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DNB, 1st Half - Luxembourg (3.07) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Northern Ireland will win (50 of 62 users predict this - 80.65%).
Confidence interval (95%): 70.82% – 90.48%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Northern Ireland will win (29 of 37 users predict this - 78.38%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 50 Selected Experts predict this event. Northern Ireland (votes: 30 - 60%). Luxembourg (votes: 20 - 40%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Hazard C. (G) Plymouth 13. McConville R. Norwich 17. McNair P. San Diego FC 22. Brown C. Oxford Utd 2. Bradley C. (C) Liverpool 16. Lyons B. Kilmarnock 20. McDonnell J. Mansfield 7. Galbraith E. Swansea 3. Lewis J. Preston 14. Price I. West Brom 10. Donley J. Stoke City	1. Moris A. (G) Al Khaleej 22. Martins M. Winterthur 2. Korac S. Venezia 13. Carlson D. St. Polten 18. Jans L. (C) SK Beveren 19. Olesen M. Greuther Furth 15. Thill O. IMT Novi Beograd 8. Martins C. Spartak Moscow 16. Barreiro L. Benfica 7. Dardari A. Augsburg 10. Sinani D. St. Pauli
Substitutes
9. Charles D. Huddersfield 1. Clarke J. (G) Partick 15. Devenny J. Crystal Palace 6. Devlin T. Portsmouth 5. Johnson R. AFC Wimbledon 19. Kelly P. Barnsley 21. Magennis J. Exeter 8. Marshall C. West Ham 18. McCausland R. Aris Limassol 11. Smyth P. QPR 23. Southwood L. (G) Bristol Rovers 4. Toal E. Bolton	9. Avdusinovic K. Progres Niedercorn 5. Curci A. Neftci Baku 6. de Sousa T. Benfica 20. Dzogovic E. Magdeburg 3. Embalo A. Entella 23. Fox L. (G) Bocholt 11. Muratovic E. Odra Opole 4. Mustafic M. Bali United 12. Pereira Cardoso T. (G) B. Monchengladbach 17. Selimovic V. FC Hermannstadt 21. Thill S. S. Rzeszow 14. Veiga E. Flamurtari
Coaches
O'Neill Mi.	Huet D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
43', Moris A. 🟨,
43', Huet D. 🟨,
44', 1 - 0, Donley J. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Bradley C. ↓, Devlin T. ↑,
53', Lyons B. ↓, Smyth P. ↑,
56', Korac S. 🟨,
67', Donley J. ↓, Marshall C. ↑,
67', McDonnell J. ↓, Magennis J. ↑,
67', Olesen M. ↓, de Sousa T. ↑,
67', Dardari A. ↓, Avdusinovic K. ↑,
80', Thill O. ↓, Muratovic E. ↑,
81', McConville R. 🟨,
82', Lewis J. ↓, Kelly P. ↑,
85', Sinani D. 🟨,
87', Martins M. ↓, Dzogovic E. ↑,
90+1', Hazard C. 🟨,
90+2', McNair P. 🟨,
90+3', de Sousa T. 🟨,
90+7', Barreiro L. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Northern Ireland won 4.

In this match, Northern Ireland is a strong favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Northern Ireland won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:8. (average 2:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Northern Ireland
FIFA World Cup
14.11.25	Slovakia - Northern Ireland	1:0 ✺
13.10.25	Northern Ireland - Germany	0:1 ✺
10.10.25	Northern Ireland - Slovakia	2:0 ✺
07.09.25	Germany - Northern Ireland	3:1 ✺
04.09.25	Luxembourg - Northern Ireland	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.6 LLWLW
- Luxembourg
FIFA World Cup
14.11.25	Luxembourg - Germany	0:2 ✺
13.10.25	Slovakia - Luxembourg	2:0 ✺
10.10.25	Germany - Luxembourg	4:0 ✺
07.09.25	Luxembourg - Slovakia	0:1 ✺
04.09.25	Luxembourg - Northern Ireland	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLLLL

Latest Head to Head

FIFA World Cup
04.09.25	Luxembourg - Northern Ireland	1:3
UEFA Nations League
18.11.24	Luxembourg - Northern Ireland	2:2
05.09.24	Northern Ireland - Luxembourg	2:0
Friendly
25.03.22	Luxembourg - Northern Ireland	1:3
05.09.19	Northern Ireland - Luxembourg	1:0
FIFA World Cup
10.09.13	Luxembourg - Northern Ireland	3:2
11.09.12	Northern Ireland - Luxembourg	1:1

Northern Ireland - Luxembourg