Match Info

Isthmian League Premier Division - Round 11

Date: 11 October 2025, Saturday


	Burgess Hill Town		Hashtag United

	1	X	2
	2.52	3.75	2.22
	2.46	3.99	2.34
	2.56	3.64	2.25
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.51 ↑ (2.19)	3.79 ↑ (3.75)	2.27 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 8.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burgess Hill Town
36.1%

Draw
23.9%

Hashtag United
40%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

24%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.9%

23%

33.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burgess Hill Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Burgess Hill Town's form might have worsened.

Hashtag United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Hashtag United's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burgess Hill Town than the current prediction. (+6.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Burgess Hill Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Hashtag United than the current prediction. (-6.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Hashtag United, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Burgess Hill Town - Hashtag United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
23', Christou J. 🟥,
28', 1 - 0, Whelpdale Ch. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', 2 - 0, Whelpdale Ch. ⚽,
81', Ring J. 🟥,
82', Box M. 🟥,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 and 14).

Both teams are currently in poor form.

Burgess Hill may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Burgess Hill has had a series of home games.

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Hashtag United - the odds 2.6 are the expected chance of winning is 34.73%, but this team recently wins 27% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burgess Hill Town
English FA Trophy
04.10.25	Burgess Hill Town - Potters Bar Town	2:1 penalties ✺
English Isthmian League Premier Division
30.09.25	Dartford - Burgess Hill Town	3:3 ✺
23.09.25	Burgess Hill Town - Carshalton Athletic	2:4 ✺
20.09.25	Burgess Hill Town - Folkestone Invicta	2:3 ✺
English FA Cup
13.09.25	Burgess Hill Town - Farnham Town	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.1 WTLLL
- Hashtag United
English FA Trophy
04.10.25	Sittingbourne - Hashtag United	1:0 ✺
English Isthmian League Premier Division
30.09.25	Hashtag United - Welling United	2:1 ✺
27.09.25	Hashtag United - Whitehawk	1:1 ✺
20.09.25	Cray Wanderers - Hashtag United	4:3 ✺
09.09.25	Wingate & Finchley - Hashtag United	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LWTLL

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