Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 39

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Plantío (Burgos)

Referee: Lax S. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	New World Sport 6
Argentina	Disney+
Asia	beIN Sports MENA 9
Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	Disney+
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion
Uruguay	Disney+
Usa	ESPN App, ESPN+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Burgos		Almería

	1	X	2
	2.45	3.2	2.82	Watch
	2.45	3.15	2.82	Watch
	2.59	3.2	3.02
	2.69	3	2.88	Watch
	2.5	3	2.75
	2.55	3.27	2.91	Watch
	2.4	3.1	2.85
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↑ (2.44)	3.13 ↓ (3.28)	2.86 ↓ (2.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burgos
37.3%

Draw
30%

Almería
32.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38.7%

28.7%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.2%

29.1%

33%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burgos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.4%)

Almería has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Burgos than the current prediction. (+0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Almería than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	50%	10%

Burgos - Almería Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Burgos will win (votes: 4 - 40%). Almería will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 50%).
Confidence interval (95%) for a draw: 19% – 81%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Burgos (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Cantero A. (G) 2. Lizancos A. 6. Gonzalez S. 8. Sierra G. 12. Miguel F. 11. Mollejo V. 23. Morante I. 5. Atienza M. (C) 21. Cordoba I. 9. Nino F. 16. Curro	1. Fernandez A. (G) 16. Luna M. 5. Rodrigo Ely 18. Bonini F. 3. Munoz A. 17. Lopy D. 29. Dzodic S. 12. Leo Baptistao (C) 11. Arribas S. 23. Embarba A. 24. de la Fuente M.
Substitutes
10. Appin K. 15. Bunuel A. 17. Cantero M. 28. del Cerro S. 33. Exposito M. 4. Galdames P. 14. Gonzalez Ballesteros D. 20. Gonzalez M. 3. Luengo O. 22. Martinez B. 7. Mejia M. 1. Ruiz J. (G)	20. Centelles A. 22. Chirino D. 21. Chumi 8. Gui Guedes 6. Horta A. 13. Martinez F. (G) 10. Melamed N. 4. Monte N. 7. Morcillo J. 2. Puigmal A. 19. Soko P. 9. Thalys
Coaches
Ramis L.	Rubi

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
19', Atienza M. 🟨,
29', de la Fuente M. 🟨,
45', Munoz A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Lopy D. 🟨,
59', Leo Baptistao 🟨,
62', Embarba A. ↓, Morcillo J. ↑,
73', Cantero A. 🟨,
74', Mollejo V. ↓, Appin K. ↑,
74', Curro ↓, Gonzalez M. ↑,
80', de la Fuente M. ↓, Thalys ↑,
80', Arribas S. ↓, Melamed N. ↑,
81', Cordoba I. ↓, Gonzalez Ballesteros D. ↑,
90', Luna M. ↓, Chirino D. ↑,
90', Leo Baptistao ↓, Puigmal A. ↑,
90+6', Gonzalez M. ↓, Mejia M. ↑,

Preview

One of the most interesting matches of the day, featuring two top-table teams (ranked 7 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga).

In recent matches, Burgos has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Almería is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

There will not play in Burgos: Lizancos A. (Injury)

There are questionable in Almería: Baba I. (Health problems)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Burgos won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 5:8. (average 1:1.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Burgos won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:3. (average 1.5:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Almeria	8	6	0	2	13:5	8	18
7	Burgos CF	8	4	2	2	12:9	3	14

Last Results with these Odds

Burgos - the odds 2.44 are the expected chance of winning is 38.66%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Almería - the odds 2.89 are the expected chance of winning is 32.63%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burgos CF
Spanish LaLiga2
03.05.26	Real Sociedad B - Burgos	0:0 ✺
25.04.26	Burgos - Deportivo A Coruña	1:1 ✺
18.04.26	Castellón - Burgos	3:1 ✺
11.04.26	Burgos - Sporting de Gijón	1:0 ✺
04.04.26	Albacete Balompié - Burgos	2:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TTLWW
- UD Almería
Spanish LaLiga2
04.05.26	Almería - Mirandés	4:2 ✺
26.04.26	Granada - Almería	2:4 ✺
19.04.26	Almería - Málaga	3:2 ✺
12.04.26	Racing Santander - Almería	5:1 ✺
05.04.26	Almería - Leganés	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
14.12.25	Almería - Burgos	1:2
21.03.25	Burgos - Almería	3:1
05.10.24	Almería - Burgos	2:0
30.04.22	Burgos - Almería	0:2
07.11.21	Almería - Burgos	2:0

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