Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 38

Date: 3 May 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio El Plantío (Burgos)

Referee: Perez M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports
Asia	beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1, beIN Sports MENA Xtra 1
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports
Mexico	Sky Sport
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Peru	DirecTV Sports
Spain	DAZN Espana, GolStadium, LaLiga Hypermotion, LaLiga TV Bar 2
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports


	Burgos		Elche

	1	X	2
	3.2	3.1	2.3	Watch
	3.1	2.8	2.4
	3.35	3	2.29	Watch
	3.58	3.05	2.38
	3.39	3.01	2.36	Watch
	3.32	3.1	2.34	Watch
	3.35	3	2.29
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.33 ↓ (3.37)	3.01 ↓ (3.01)	2.34 ↑ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Burgos
28.3%

Draw
31.3%

Elche
40.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

28%

31.3%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.7%

31%

41%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Burgos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.3%)

Elche has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Burgos than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elche than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
7.7%	38.5%	53.8%

Burgos - Elche Predictions

Users Predictions: 13 users predict this event. Burgos will win (votes: 1 - 7.7%). Elche will win (votes: 7 - 53.8%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 38.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Elche: 26.7% – 80.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Elche (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - Burgos (1.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25 - Burgos (1.86) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Burgos (votes: 2 - 50%). Elche (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Cantero A. (G) 4. Arroyo A. 18. Cordoba A. 8. Sierra G. 3. Miguel F. 5. Atienza M. 23. Morante I. 11. Alex Sancris 16. Curro 21. Cordoba I. 9. Nino F.	13. Dituro M. (G) 5. Donald J. 22. Affengruber D. 6. Bigas P. 12. Salinas J. 11. Rashani E. 14. Febas A. 21. Castro N. 20. Valera G. 10. Mercau N. 7. Plano O.
Substitutes
15. Bares G. 28. Cantero M. 19. Espiau Hernandez E. D. 14. Gonzalez Ballesteros D. 2. Konan G. 24. Milicic N. 17. Mimbacas F. 1. Nadal T. (G) 6. Navarro R. 20. Pipa 46. Quintanilla R. 10. Sanchez B.	8. Aguado M. 16. Alex Martin 9. Alvarez A. 19. El Ghezouani M. 31. Hernandez G. 3. Izquierdo J. 17. Josan 18. Kaba S. 2. Mario Gaspar 30. Mendoza R. 23. Pejino 1. San Roman M. (G)
Coaches
Ramis L.	Sarabia E.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
14', Nino F. 🟨,
20', Curro 🟨,
37', Cordoba I. 🟨,
39', Febas A. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
53', Alex Sancris 🟨,
57', Alex Sancris ↓, Gonzalez Ballesteros D. ↑,
60', Salinas J. 🟨,
61', Plano O. ↓, Kaba S. ↑,
61', Rashani E. ↓, Pejino ↑,
71', Valera G. 🟨,
75', Febas A. ↓, Aguado M. ↑,
75', Castro N. ↓, Alvarez A. ↑,
77', Cordoba I. ↓, Espiau Hernandez E. D. ↑,
77', Curro ↓, Sanchez B. ↑,
82', Valera G. ↓, Josan ↑,
87', 0 - 1, Mercau N. ⚽, Josan (A),
89', Atienza M. ↓, Mimbacas F. ↑,
90+3', Arroyo A. 🟨,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga).

Recent performances by Burgos have been up and down (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Elche is in very good shape now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Elche is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

There will not play in Burgos: Appin K. (Knee Injury) Exposito M. (Yellow Cards) Ojeda D. (Yellow Cards) Quintanilla R. (Injury)

There will not play in Elche: Alvarez A. (Knee Injury) Diaby B. (Injury) Mendoza R. (Illness) Santiago Y. (Knee Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Burgos won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:3. (average 1.3:1).

Including home match between the teams, Burgos won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 4:0.

Last Results with these Odds

Elche - the odds 2.32 are the expected chance of winning is 40.63%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Burgos CF
Spanish LaLiga2
26.04.25	Mirandés - Burgos	2:1 ✺
19.04.25	Burgos - Cádiz	2:2 ✺
12.04.25	Tenerife - Burgos	0:0 ✺
06.04.25	Burgos - Huesca	2:1 ✺
29.03.25	Eldense - Burgos	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LTTWT
- Elche CF
Spanish LaLiga2
26.04.25	Granada - Elche	1:1 ✺
20.04.25	Elche - Albacete Balompié	2:2 ✺
12.04.25	Cádiz - Elche	0:1 ✺
07.04.25	Elche - Ferrol	1:0 ✺
30.03.25	Córdoba - Elche	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
27.10.24	Elche - Burgos	1:0
02.02.24	Elche - Burgos	2:0
23.09.23	Burgos - Elche	4:0

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