Match Info

LaLiga - Round 31

Date: 11 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero (Elche)

Referee: Maeso F. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Elche		Valencia

	1	X	2
	2.7	3.5	2.55	Watch
	2.72	3.45	2.52	Watch
	2.74	3.5	2.67
	2.64	3.48	2.63	Watch
	2.5	3.3	2.63
	2.74	3.56	2.59	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.67 ↑ (2.36)	3.47 ↑ (3.26)	2.6 ↓ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Elche
35.7%

Draw
27.6%

Valencia
36.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40%

28.9%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.1%

29.7%

30.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Elche has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Valencia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Valencia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Elche than the current prediction. (+5.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Elche, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Valencia than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Valencia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
16.7%	33.3%	50%

Elche - Valencia Predictions

Users Predictions: 18 users predict this event. Elche will win (votes: 3 - 16.7%). Valencia will win (votes: 9 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Valencia: 26.9% – 73.1%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Dituro M. (C) 42. Buba Sangare 22. Affengruber D. 21. Petrot L. 15. Tete Morente 14. Febas A. 12. Villar G. 11. Valera G. 16. Neto M. 10. Mir R. 9. Andre Silva	1. Dimitrievski S. (G) 12. Rendall T. 5. Tarrega C. 24. Comert E. 14. Gaya J. (C) 11. Rioja L. 2. Rodriguez G. 23. Ugrinic F. 17. Ramazani L. 15. Beltran L. 6. Sadiq U.
Substitutes
24. Cepeda L. 23. Chust V. 31. Delgado D. 18. Donald J. 45. Iturbe A. (G) 17. Josan 3. Pedrosa A. 13. Pena I. (G) 5. Redondo Solari F. 20. Rodriguez A.	10. Almeida A. 7. Danjuma A. 9. Duro H. 8. Guerra J. 16. Lopez D. 18. Pepelu 19. Raba D. 20. Renzo Saravia 13. Rivero C. (G) 26. Rubo 22. Santamaria B. 21. Vazquez J.
Coaches
Sarabia E.	Corberan C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
59', Buba Sangare 🟨,
60', Rioja L. ↓, Lopez D. ↑,
61', Sadiq U. ↓, Duro H. ↑,
63', Rodriguez G. 🟨,
64', Andre Silva ↓, Rodriguez A. ↑,
64', Buba Sangare ↓, Donald J. ↑,
72', Neto M. ↓, Cepeda L. ↑,
72', Villar G. ↓, Pedrosa A. ↑,
73', 1 - 0, Cepeda L. ⚽, Febas A. (A),
75', Comert E. ↓, Pepelu ↑,
75', Gaya J. ↓, Vazquez J. ↑,
81', Beltran L. ↓, Danjuma A. ↑,
82', Valera G. ↓, Chust V. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 18 in the zone Relegation ~ LaLiga2 and 14).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Elche won 0.

Both teams are showing inconsistent performances lately.

Valencia may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Elche has had a series of away games.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Elche: Bigas P. (Red Card) Boayar A. (Muscle Injury) Diangana G. (Injury)

There will not play in Valencia: Agirrezabala J. (Knee Injury) Copete J. (Ankle Injury) Diakhaby M. (Muscle Injury) Foulquier D. (Knee Injury) Nunez U. (Muscle Injury) Renzo Saravia (Injury)

There are questionable in Elche: Aguado M. (Muscle Injury) Fort H. (Shoulder Injury)

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Elche won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 10:20. (average 0.9:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Elche won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 0.8:1.8).

Outrights of Spanish LaLiga for now

Valencia: 0.31% Elche: 0.2%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11:17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4:13	-9	4

Last Results with these Odds

Elche - the odds 2.36 are the expected chance of winning is 40%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Elche CF
Spanish LaLiga
03.04.26	Rayo Vallecano - Elche	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
27.03.26	Aston Villa - Elche	1:2 ✺
Spanish LaLiga
21.03.26	Elche - Mallorca	2:1 ✺
14.03.26	Real Madrid - Elche	4:1 ✺
08.03.26	Villarreal - Elche	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LWWLL
- CF Valencia
Spanish LaLiga
05.04.26	Valencia - Celta de Vigo	2:3 ✺
21.03.26	Sevilla - Valencia	0:2 ✺
14.03.26	Real Oviedo - Valencia	1:0 ✺
08.03.26	Valencia - Deportivo Alavés	3:2 ✺
01.03.26	Valencia - Osasuna	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LWLWW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga
10.01.26	Valencia - Elche	1:1
23.04.23	Elche - Valencia	0:2
15.10.22	Valencia - Elche	2:2
19.03.22	Elche - Valencia	0:1
11.12.21	Valencia - Elche	2:1
30.01.21	Valencia - Elche	1:0
23.10.20	Elche - Valencia	2:1

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