Match Info

FA Trophy - Qualification - Final

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Gigg Lane (Bury) 🌤️ ...


	Bury		Gainsborough Trinity

	1	X	2
	1.53	4.00	4.75
	1.52	4.05	4.9
	1.52	4.2	4.61
	1.56	4.44	4.92	Watch
	1.5	4.15	4.55
	1.63	4.15	4.66
	1.54	4.1	4.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.54 ↓ (1.7)	4.16 ↑ (4.02)	4.76 ↑ (4.26)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bury
59%

Draw
21.9%

Gainsborough Trinity
19.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

54.9%

23.2%

21.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

56.7%

22.5%

21.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bury has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.1%)

Gainsborough Trinity has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bury than the current prediction. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Gainsborough Trinity than the current prediction. (+2.1%)

Bury - Gainsborough Trinity Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 3)
Penalties (6 - 5)

Preview

Bury is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 4 wins).

Gainsborough has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Bury could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

Recently, Bury has enjoyed a run of consecutive matches in front of its home crowd.

Bury carries the favorite tag into this contest.

Our forecast points to a victory for Bury in today's match, at odds of 1.69.

In the last 1 head-to-head meeting, Bury has recorded 1 win, 0 draws, and 0 losses, with a goal aggregate of 1:0.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bury FC
English FA Cup
19.09.26	Bury - Workington	5:1 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
12.09.26	Bury - Emley	4:0 ✺
English FA Cup
05.09.26	Bury - Wythenshawe	8:0 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
31.08.26	Hyde United - Bury	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Bury - Ilkeston	7:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.4 WWWLW
- Gainsborough Trinity
English FA Cup
22.09.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Leamington	3:0 ✺
19.09.26	Leamington - Gainsborough Trinity	1:1 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
12.09.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Avro	0:2 ✺
31.08.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Cleethorpes Town	0:3 ✺
28.08.26	Ashton United - Gainsborough Trinity	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WTLLW

Latest Head to Head

English NPL Premier Division
22.08.26	Gainsborough Trinity - Bury	0:1

Bury - Gainsborough Trinity