Match Info

FA Cup - Qualification - Quarter-finals

Date: 19 September 2026, Saturday


	Bury		Workington

	1	X	2
	1.62	4.00	4.10
	1.70	3.60	4.40
	1.48	4.12	4.99
	1.66	4.18	4.37	Watch
	1.46	4.05	4.90
	1.68	4.06	4.37	Watch
	1.65	3.90	4.20
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.61 ↓ (1.76)	3.99 ↑ (3.75)	4.48 ↑ (3.87)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bury
56.7%

Draw
22.9%

Workington
20.4%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

52%

24.4%

23.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.4%

25%

23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bury has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.7%)

Workington has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Bury than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Workington than the current prediction. (+2.6%)

Bury - Workington Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
2nd Half (3 - 0)

Preview

Replayed if draw.

Bury has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Workington is on a roll with consecutive victories (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Bury may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Bury has enjoyed a run of consecutive matches in front of its home crowd.

Bury carries the favorite tag into this contest.

No recent head-to-head matches have been recorded between these two competitors.

Last Results with these Odds

Workington - the odds 3.87 are the expected chance of winning is 23.61%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bury FC
English NPL Premier Division
12.09.26	Bury - Emley	4:0 ✺
English FA Cup
05.09.26	Bury - Wythenshawe	8:0 ✺
English NPL Premier Division
31.08.26	Hyde United - Bury	2:1 ✺
29.08.26	Bury - Ilkeston	7:0 ✺
25.08.26	Bury - Lancaster City	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 WWLWL
- Workington
English NPL Premier Division
12.09.26	Workington - Ilkeston	3:1 ✺
31.08.26	Lancaster City - Workington	0:3 ✺
29.08.26	Workington - Leek Town	3:2 ✺
25.08.26	Workington - Warrington Rylands	3:2 ✺
22.08.26	United of Manchester - Workington	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21 WWWWW

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bury FC
English NPL Premier Division
27.10.26	Bury - Leek Town	✺
English FA Trophy
24.10.26	Bury - Prescot Cables	✺
- Workington
English FA Trophy
24.10.26	Workington - Cleethorpes Town	✺

Bury - Workington: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide