Match Info

Southern League Premier Central - Round 12

Date: 13 October 2026, Tuesday 🏁 Finished


	Bury Town		Needham Market

	1	X	2
	2.15	3.30	2.85
	2.25	3.20	2.75
	2.13	3.38	3.05
	2.17	3.59	3.03	Watch
	2.10	3.30	3.00
	2.14	3.66	3.03
	2.19	3.35	2.90
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.16 ↓ (2.17)	3.4 ↓ (3.43)	2.94 ↑ (2.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Bury Town
42.2%

Draw
26.8%

Needham Market
31%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

41.7%

26.4%

31.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

25.5%

30.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Bury Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

Needham Market has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Bury Town than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Needham Market than the current prediction. (-0.2%)

Bury Town - Needham Market Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
4', 0 - 1, Pearce L. ⚽,
17', 0 - 2, Ingram L. ⚽,
45+1', 0 - 3, Pearce L. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
64', 0 - 4, Miles R. ⚽,
78', 0 - 5, Pearce L. ⚽,

Preview

An upper-table contender faces a competitive test against mid-table opposition (ranked 2nd in the Promotion - Southern League Premier Central Playoffs - Semi - finals and 9th).

Bury Town is in solid form heading into this fixture (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Needham has shown an inconsistent pattern in recent weeks (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Bury Town may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 4 head-to-head meetings, Bury Town has recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 2 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:9 (averaging 1.8:2.3 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Bury Town against this opponent, the record stands at 1 win, 1 draw, and 0 losses, with 4:2 goals (averaging 2:1 per game).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Bury Town	14	10	1	3	24:20	4	31
6	Needham Market	14	7	3	4	29:20	9	24

Outrights of English Southern League Central Division for now

Bury Town: 13.87% Needham Market: 1.86%

Last Results with these Odds

Needham Market - the odds 2.83 are the expected chance of winning is 31.94%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Bury Town
English Southern League Central Division
10.10.26	Alvechurch - Bury Town	0:1 ✺
English FA Cup
06.10.26	Spalding United - Bury Town	4:0 ✺
03.10.26	Bury Town - Spalding United	1:1 ✺
English Southern League Central Division
29.09.26	Bishops Stortford - Bury Town	1:2 ✺
22.09.26	Bury Town - Hitchin Town	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 WLTWW
- Needham Market
English Southern League Central Division
10.10.26	Needham Market - Anstey Nomads	1:1 ✺
03.10.26	Rushall Olympic - Needham Market	5:3 ✺
29.09.26	Needham Market - Stamford	4:0 ✺
English FA Cup
22.09.26	Braintree Town - Needham Market	3:0
19.09.26	Needham Market - Braintree Town	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.8 TLWLT

Latest Head to Head

English Southern League Central Division
21.02.26	Bury Town - Needham Market	1:1
22.10.25	Needham Market - Bury Town	4:2
Club Friendly
27.07.21	Bury Town - Needham Market	3:1
08.09.20	Needham Market - Bury Town	3:1

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