Match Info

Primera A - Apertura - Round 8

Date: 23 February 2026, Monday

Location: Estadio General Santander (Cúcuta)

Referee: Betancur Gutierrez C. A. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Colombia	Win+ Futbol, Win play
Mexico	Fanatiz
South-america	RCN Nuestra Tele Internacional
Usa	Fanatiz


	Cúcuta Deportivo		Deportes Tolima

	1	X	2
	2.25	3.2	3.3	Watch
	2.25	3.1	3.1
	2.28	3.15	3.2	Watch
	2.54	3.28	2.76
	2.21	3.19	3.37	Watch
	2.25	3	3.1
	2.29	3.06	3.22	Watch
	2.6	3.2	2.62
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.33 ↓ (2.94)	3.15 ↓ (3.16)	3.08 ↑ (2.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cúcuta Deportivo
40%

Draw
29.7%

Deportes Tolima
30.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

31.7%

29.5%

38.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.4%

29.2%

39.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cúcuta Deportivo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cúcuta Deportivo's performance.

Deportes Tolima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Deportes Tolima might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cúcuta Deportivo than the current prediction. (-8.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cúcuta Deportivo that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Deportes Tolima than the current prediction. (+8.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Deportes Tolima could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
52.9%	29.4%	17.6%

Cúcuta Deportivo - Deportes Tolima Predictions

Users Predictions: 17 users predict this event. Cúcuta will win (votes: 9 - 52.9%). Deportes Tolima will win (votes: 3 - 17.6%). It will Tie (votes: 5 - 29.4%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Cúcuta: 29.2% – 76.6%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Cúcuta (votes: 4 - 57.1%). Tie (votes: 3 - 42.9%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Cúcuta (1.84) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Deportes Tolima (1.61) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 9 Selected Experts predict this event. Cúcuta (votes: 5 - 55.6%). Deportes Tolima (votes: 1 - 11.1%). Tie (votes: 3 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Ramirez J. (G) 26. Abonia Y. 3. Calcaterra D. 28. Rodriguez S. 27. Duarte Barajas E. M. (C) 16. Londono K. 5. Mejia V. 23. Castaneda F. 11. Arizalas E. 90. Hernandez L. 7. Berdugo L.	22. Marquinez L. (G) 27. Martinez M. 3. Angulo J. 5. Mera J. 30. Barbosa Gomez S. P. 80. Rovira B. (C) 32. Guzman S. 7. Gonzalez J. 8. Valencia E. 18. Florez K. 9. Sandoval L.
Substitutes
70. Cano A. 8. Ceballos J. 44. Cordoba B. 30. Montano B. 12. Munoz D. (G) 9. Peralta J. 20. Perez D. 4. Quinones J. 19. Valencia J.	13. Alvarez E. 23. Balanta Carabali G. J. (G) 20. Hernandez J. 31. Moreno Y. 21. Parra Y. A. 4. Pedrozo D. 16. Reyes V. 29. Sanchez N. 11. Valencia J.
Coaches
Paez R.	Gonzalez L.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 2)
15', 0 - 1, Florez K. ⚽,
29', 1 - 1, Hernandez L. ⚽, Berdugo L. (A),
38', 1 - 2, Florez K. ⚽, Sandoval L. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Castaneda F. ↓, Cano A. ↑,
46', Calcaterra D. ↓, Quinones J. ↑,
46', Rodriguez S. ↓, Cordoba B. ↑,
50', 2 - 2, Quinones J. ⚽, Berdugo L. (A),
56', Barbosa Gomez S. P. ↓, Hernandez J. ↑,
56', Valencia E. ↓, Moreno Y. ↑,
57', Sandoval L. ↓, Valencia J. ↑,
57', Martinez M. ↓, Parra Y. A. ↑,
57', 3 - 2, Hernandez L. ⚽, Arizalas E. (A),
62', Rovira B. 🟨,
70', Abonia Y. 🟨,
70', Berdugo L. ↓, Peralta J. ↑,
75', Abonia Y. ↓, Montano B. ↑,
75', Florez K. ↓, Sanchez N. ↑,
85', Peralta J. 🟨,
87', Ramirez J. 🟨,
89', Londono K. 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 19 and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Primera A (Apertura ~ Play Offs: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cúcuta won 1.

Cúcuta is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Deportes Tolima's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Cúcuta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

In the last 11 head-to-head matches, Cúcuta won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 6:22. (average 0.5:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Cúcuta won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 3:12. (average 0.5:2).

Standings

Clausura

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Deportes Tolima	13	5	5	3	15:13	2	20
11	Cucuta	12	4	3	5	15:19	-4	15

Last Results with these Odds

Deportes Tolima - the odds 2.41 are the expected chance of winning is 38.72%, but this team recently wins 44% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cúcuta Deportivo
Colombian Primera A
17.02.26	Alianza Valledupar - Cúcuta Deportivo	1:1 ✺
10.02.26	Cúcuta Deportivo - Independiente Medellín	1:3 ✺
07.02.26	Rionegro Águilas - Cúcuta Deportivo	3:2 ✺
31.01.26	Cúcuta Deportivo - Fortaleza CEIF	1:1 ✺
27.01.26	Cúcuta Deportivo - Atlético Bucaramanga	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TLLTT
- Deportes Tolima
Copa Libertadores
19.02.26	Deportivo Táchira - Deportes Tolima	0:1 ✺
Colombian Primera A
15.02.26	Deportes Tolima - Once Caldas	2:1 ✺
10.02.26	Atlético Bucaramanga - Deportes Tolima	0:0 ✺
07.02.26	Deportes Tolima - Llaneros SA	0:1 ✺
02.02.26	Inter Bogotá - Deportes Tolima	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 WWTLT

Latest Head to Head

Colombian Primera A
11.10.20	Cúcuta Deportivo - Deportes Tolima	0:3
20.11.19	Deportes Tolima - Cúcuta Deportivo	0:1
17.11.19	Cúcuta Deportivo - Deportes Tolima	0:0
19.10.19	Deportes Tolima - Cúcuta Deportivo	2:1
28.04.19	Cúcuta Deportivo - Deportes Tolima	0:2
30.08.15	Deportes Tolima - Cúcuta Deportivo	3:0
11.03.15	Cúcuta Deportivo - Deportes Tolima	1:1

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