Match Info

CONCACAF Central American Cup

Date: 26 August 2026, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Yankel Rosenthal (San Pedro Sula)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	CD Marathón		Real Estelí

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.77	3.10	4.20
	1.88	2.90	4.10
	1.82	3.33	4.53
	1.93	3.28	4.04	Watch
	1.75	3.25	4.40
	1.83	3.67	3.98	Watch
	1.80	3.15	4.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.39)	3.24 ↑ (2.82)	4.24 ↑ (3.04)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CD Marathón
50.1%

Draw
28.3%

Real Estelí
21.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

38%

32.2%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.7%

32.5%

30%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CD Marathón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in CD Marathón's performance.

Real Estelí has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Estelí might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CD Marathón than the current prediction. (-12.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with CD Marathón that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Estelí than the current prediction. (+8.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Estelí could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

CD Marathón - Real Estelí Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Marathón will win (votes: 7 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rougier J. (G) 16. Agurcia S. 4. Rivera J. 2. Figueroa H. (C) 14. Arriaga Chavez J. A. 9. Farioli B. 8. Sorto Caballero T. A. 10. Ramirez D. 22. Argueta C. 11. Messiniti N. 29. Perez C.	1. Faust J. (G) 27. Quijano J. (C) 24. Calero A. 4. Fletes M. 23. Acevedo O. 11. Barrera J. 6. Colombino A. 13. Baez A. 28. Blanco R. 7. Bonilla B. 21. Casado E.
Substitutes
60. Arriaga L. 3. Bodden K. 20. Bueso J. 39. Canales M. 7. Castillo I. 77. Elis A. 31. Juarez H. (G) 12. Mejia Y. 43. Montoya L. 72. Moreno Y. 27. Paz J. 21. Ramos O.	18. Bello O. 9. Castillo E. 22. Cerda E. (G) 17. Downs K. 29. Gutierrez J. 16. Lopez M. 19. Martinez E. J. 10. Medina H. 20. Moses L. 25. Salandia C. (G) 12. Talavera W. 15. Toledo J.
Coaches
Rudman S. G.	Vazquez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
22', Messiniti N. 🟨,
25', Casado E. 🟨,
31', Acevedo O. 🟨,
41', Barrera J. ↓, Downs K. ↑,
43', 1 - 0, Farioli B. ⚽, Perez C. (A),
45', Quijano J. 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 0)
52', Casado E. ↓, Castillo E. ↑,
52', Baez A. ↓, Talavera W. ↑,
53', 2 - 0, Arriaga L. ⚽, Farioli B. (A),
55', Farioli B. 🟨,
60', Figueroa H. 🟨,
65', Colombino A. ↓, Toledo J. ↑,
65', Blanco R. ↓, Moses L. ↑,
72', Agurcia S. 🟨,
79', Castillo E. 🟥,
83', Argueta C. ↓, Bodden K. ↑,
83', Farioli B. ↓, Bueso J. ↑,
87', Messiniti N. ↓, Moreno Y. ↑,
90+1', 3 - 0, Moreno Y. ⚽, Agurcia S. (A),
90+2', Ramirez D. ↓, Castillo I. ↑,
90+2', Perez C. ↓, Mejia Y. ↑,

Preview

Marathón is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Real Estelí has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Real Estelí may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Real Estelí has had a series of home games.

Marathón is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Marathón won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Marathón won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:0.

Last Results with these Odds

CD Marathón - the odds 2.39 are the expected chance of winning is 38.02%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Marathón
Honduras Liga Nacional
23.08.26	CD Marathón - Real España	1:1 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
19.08.26	CD Marathón - Alianza San Miguel	0:1 ✺
Honduras Liga Nacional
16.08.26	Choloma - CD Marathón	0:1 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
13.08.26	Antigua GFC - CD Marathón	0:3 ✺
Honduras Liga Nacional
03.08.26	CD Marathón - Atlético Independiente	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11 TLWWW
- Real Estelí
Nicaraguan Liga Primera
22.08.26	Real Estelí - Diriangén	0:2 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
18.08.26	Real Estelí - Herediano	0:2 ✺
11.08.26	Real Estelí - Alianza San Miguel	3:1 ✺
Nicaraguan Liga Primera
07.08.26	Real Estelí - Walter Ferretti	4:1 ✺
CONCACAF Central American Cup
04.08.26	Antigua GFC - Real Estelí	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

CONCACAF League
29.09.21	Real Estelí - CD Marathón	2:1 penalties
22.09.21	CD Marathón - Real Estelí	2:0

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