Match Info

BRAZIL: Alagoano - Play Offs - Semi-finals

Date: 15 February 2025, Saturday

Location: Estádio Rei Pelé (Maceió)


	CRB Maceio		Penedense

	1	X	2
	1.51	3.75	6
	1.62	3.84	4.83
	1.57	3.65	5.62	Watch
	1.63	3.64	5.46
	1.51	3.75	6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.57 ↓ (1.75)	3.73 ↑ (3.29)	5.58 ↑ (4.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

CRB Maceio
58.8%

Draw
24.7%

Penedense
16.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52%

27.6%

20.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

53.1%

27%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

CRB Maceio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in CRB Maceio's performance.

Penedense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for CRB Maceio than the current prediction. (-5.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with CRB Maceio that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Penedense than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

CRB Maceio - Penedense Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Matheus Albino (G) 9. Anselmo Ramon (C) 180. Daniel 8. Gege 44. Henri 22. Higor Meritao 38. Leo Pereira 5. Lucas Kallyel 2. Matheus Ribeiro 4. Segovia L. 77. Vitinho	1. Alexandre Silva (C) 11. Amaral 5. Drey 4. Edi Carlos 8. Kaio 10. Kayllan 21. Leo Carvalho 6. Maikon 7. Matheus Recife 2. Naldo 3. Tchow
Substitutes
34. Darlisson 7. Erick Varao 17. Hiago 30. Miranda 70. Nathan Melo 18. Rafinha 33. Rodriguinho 20. Vinicius Barata 1. Vitor Caetano (G)	22. Carioca 17. Daniel Silva 18. Jardeu 19. Jonatha 23. Kauan Minas 14. Maycon Alagoano 16. Nilton . Romarinho 20. Thiaguinho 15. Victor Paraiba 12. Wanderson 13. William Salvino

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
55', 1 - 0, Vinicius Barata ⚽,
59', 🟨,
62', 2 - 0, Anselmo Ramon ⚽,
73', Danielzinho 🟨,
82', Carioca 🟨,

Preview

1st leg.

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Alagoano (Play Offs: ) and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Alagoano (Play Offs: )).

CRB is in undoubted good shape (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Recent matches Penedense is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

CRB could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match CRB is a favorite.

Last 2 head-to-head matches CRB won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 3:2 (average 1.5:1).

Including matches at home between the teams CRB won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2:2

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CRB Maceio
Brazilian Copa Alagoas
12.02.25	CRB Maceio - Agremiação Sportiva Arapiraquense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
11.02.25	CRB Maceio - Moto Club de São Luís	2:2 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Alagoano
08.02.25	CRB Maceio - Coruripe	5:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa do Nordeste
05.02.25	Altos - CRB Maceio	1:1 ✺
Brazilian Copa Alagoas
05.02.25	CS Alagoano - CRB Maceio	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WTWTT
- SC Penedense
Brazilian Copa Alagoas
12.02.25	Penedense - Guarany Alagoano	5:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Alagoano
08.02.25	Penedense - CS Alagoano	2:0 ✺
Brazilian Copa Alagoas
05.02.25	Clube Sociedade Esportiva - Penedense	1:0 ✺
Brazilian Campeonato Alagoano
29.01.25	CRB Maceio - Penedense	2:2 ✺
26.01.25	Penedense - Coruripe	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.6 WWLTT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Campeonato Alagoano
29.01.25	CRB Maceio - Penedense	2:2
20.01.24	Penedense - CRB Maceio	0:1

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