Match Info

Liga 3 - Relegation Group - Round 9

Date: 25 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Campo da Mata (Caldas da Rainha)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Caldas		Covilhã

	1	X	2
	2.12	3.15	3.05
	2.31	3.3	3.18
	2.26	3.32	3.07	Watch
	2.1	3	3.25
	2.15	3.26	3.36	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.19 ↑ (2.08)	3.21 ↑ (3.03)	3.18 ↓ (3.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caldas
42.2%

Draw
28.8%

Covilhã
29%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

44%

30.2%

25.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.5%

29.9%

25.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Covilhã has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caldas than the current prediction. (+2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Covilhã than the current prediction. (-3.5%)

Caldas - Covilhã Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Soares W. (G) 66. Carreira R. 23. Catarino T. 60. Chaves G. 25. Farinha L. 20. Lourenco G. 30. Monteiro E. 94. Oliveira F. 6. Palmerio M. 3. Pires Gomes J. R. 33. Tarzan	31. Pinto Galil L. G. (G) 26. Balsa C. 6. Barbosa A. 33. Calegari A. 20. Ferreira R. 22. Gomes Silva E. 96. Jailson 79. Liberal A. 10. Mica 99. Niang C. 77. Silva M.
Substitutes
12. Almeida D. (G) 50. Clemente D. 16. Costa M. 79. Gata J. 17. Goncas 10. Januario 77. Lopes D. 2. Silva R. 91. Vieira J.	1. Araujo I. (G) 14. Brito P. 3. Costa Branco Novais Oliveira T. 19. Cruz F. 90. Diancoumba S. 55. Garcia F. 30. Matos S. 27. Pimenta T. 13. Ribeiro P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
17', Monteiro E. 🟨,
39', 1 - 0, Tarzan ⚽, Chaves G. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 1)
52', Niang C. 🟨,
52', 🟨,
56', 🟨,
61', Barbosa A. ↓, Cruz F. ↑,
61', Gomes Silva E. ↓, Garcia F. ↑,
61', Liberal A. 🟨,
68', 🟨,
71', 1 - 1, Cruz F. ⚽,
74', Ferreira R. ↓, Costa Branco Novais Oliveira T. ↑,
74', Liberal A. ↓, Ribeiro P. ↑,
79', 🟨,
86', Niang C. ↓, Diancoumba S. ↑,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Caldas won 1.

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Caldas is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Caldas won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 15:17. (average 1.3:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Caldas won 3 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 10:8. (average 1.4:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Covilhã - the odds 3.54 are the expected chance of winning is 25.82%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Caldas
Portuguese Liga 3
18.04.26	Atlético CP - Caldas	2:0 ✺
12.04.26	Amora - Caldas	1:2 ✺
22.03.26	Caldas - Lusitano GC	1:1 ✺
14.03.26	Caldas - Atlético CP	0:1 ✺
07.03.26	Lusitano GC - Caldas	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.5 LWTLW
- Sporting Covilhã
Portuguese Liga 3
18.04.26	Lusitano GC - Covilhã	1:0 ✺
12.04.26	Covilhã - Atlético CP	2:1 ✺
21.03.26	1 Dezembro - Covilhã	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Covilhã - Lusitano GC	1:3 ✺
07.03.26	Covilhã - 1 Dezembro	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.8 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
22.02.26	Covilhã - Caldas	1:0
09.11.25	Covilhã - Caldas	2:1
09.08.25	Caldas - Covilhã	2:1
Club Friendly
25.07.25	Caldas - Covilhã	1:1
Portuguese Liga 3
04.05.25	Covilhã - Caldas	1:1
15.02.25	Caldas - Covilhã	0:1
30.11.24	Caldas - Covilhã	1:2

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