Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 6

Date: 28 September 2025, Sunday

Location: Campo da Mata (Caldas da Rainha)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Caldas		Mafra

	1	X	2
	2.18	3	3.05
	2.31	3.17	3.29
	2.75	2.93	2.70	Watch
	2.22	3.05	3.12
	2.15	3.3	3.02
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.32 ↑ (2.12)	3.09 ↓ (3.3)	3.04 ↑ (3.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caldas
39.7%

Draw
29.9%

Mafra
30.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

27.4%

29.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.3%

26.4%

28.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3%)

Mafra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caldas than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Mafra than the current prediction. (-1.6%)

Caldas - Mafra Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Soares W. (G) 3. Pires Gomes J. R. 14. Maneta D. 66. Carreira R. 10. Januario 4. Pipo 6. Palmerio M. 8. Clemente D. 11. Velosa M. 33. Tarzan (C) 5. Pepo	33. Silva P. (C) 3. Alves K. 2. Camara M. 5. Beni D. 90. Moreira R. 45. Sambu B. 85. Neves L. 35. Monteiro V. 10. Lucas Gabriel 30. Ninte M. 9. Niang M.
Substitutes
7. Alexandre R. 12. Almeida D. (G) 16. Costa M. 50. Djei B. 87. Ewandro Santos 79. Gata J. 17. Goncas 25. Luis Paulo (G) 2. Yordy Marcelo	21. Djalo U. 66. Ferreira J. 8. Goncalves V. 19. Iheanacho S. 7. Matos R. 13. Raposo C. 99. Ribeiro L. (G) 23. Serra S. 4. Silva P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
25', Beni D. 🟨,
38', Neves L. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
47', Clemente D. 🟨,
48', Niang M. 🟨,
71', Pipo ↓, Gata J. ↑,
71', Velosa M. ↓, Ewandro Santos ↑,
76', Niang M. ↓, Iheanacho S. ↑,
76', Lucas Gabriel ↓, Goncalves V. ↑,
77', 🟨,
79', 0 - 1, Maneta D. (Own goal),
84', 1 - 1, Tarzan ⚽,
90+2', 🟨,
90+2', 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: ) and 7 in the zone Liga 3 (Relegation Group: )).

Caldas is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Mafra has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Mafra may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Caldas could have a small edge in this match.

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Caldas won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 4:8. (average 1:2).

Including home matches between the teams, Caldas won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Caldas
Portuguese Liga 3
24.09.25	União de Santarém - Caldas	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
20.09.25	Caldas - Fatima	3:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
14.09.25	Caldas - 1 Dezembro	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
05.09.25	Caldas - Portomosense	4:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
24.08.25	Atlético CP - Caldas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 WWTWL
- CD Mafra
Taça de Portugal
21.09.25	Celoricense - Mafra	1:0 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
14.09.25	Covilhã - Mafra	0:0 ✺
24.08.25	Mafra - Académica Coimbra	1:0 ✺
17.08.25	Lusitano GC - Mafra	4:1 ✺
09.08.25	Mafra - Belenenses	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 LTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
27.07.24	Caldas - Mafra	0:2
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
18.02.18	Caldas - Mafra	2:2
08.10.17	Mafra - Caldas	1:0
05.03.17	Mafra - Caldas	3:2

Caldas - Mafra: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide