Match Info

Liga 3 - Round 7

Date: 24 October 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Campo da Mata (Caldas da Rainha) 🌤️ ...

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Portugal	15:00	Canal 11


	Caldas		Mafra

	1	X	2
	3.10	3.25	2.05
	3.20	3.30	1.95
	3.41	3.24	2.17
	3.35	3.33	2.12	Watch
	3.25	3.10	2.09
	3.21	3.18	2.07
	3.20	3.35	1.97
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.25 ↑ (2.22)	3.25 ↑ (2.8)	2.06 ↓ (3.39)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Caldas
28%

Draw
27.9%

Mafra
44.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.9%

32.4%

26.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-12.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Caldas's form might have worsened.

Mafra has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Mafra's recent form is better than expected.

Caldas - Mafra Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Almeida D. (G) 17. Goncas 3. Nando 8. Clemente D. 22. Serrazina T. 28. Nascimento D. 80. Palmerio M. 21. Mucuana Lobo E. J. 94. Oliveira F. 77. Pio G. 9. Chaves G. (C)	33. Silva P. (G) 13. Raposo C. 2. Camara M. (C) 5. Cardoso G. 15. Silva J. 11. Leandro Alves 3. Alves K. 37. Ba A. 7. Matos R. 9. Niang M. 46. Sambu B.
Substitutes
5. Correia R. 25. Farinha L. 11. Fernandes D. 6. Izata D. 10. Pepo 7. Ricky 1. Soares W. (G) 91. Vieira J.	17. Balde A. 66. Ferreira J. 18. Goba Zakpa 1. Lemos F. (G) 10. Lucas Gabriel 6. Maiga Y. 90. Moreira R. 8. Neves L. 42. Ngom A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
31', 1 - 0, Pio G. ⚽, Mucuana Lobo E. J. (A),
42', 2 - 0, Chaves G. ⚽, Mucuana Lobo E. J. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 3)
46', Cardoso G. ↓, Neves L. ↑,
46', Ba A. ↓, Ngom A. ↑,
47', 2 - 1, Ngom A. ⚽,
63', 2 - 2, Niang M. ⚽, Ngom A. (A),
64', Mucuana Lobo E. J. ↓, Ricky ↑,
64', Pio G. ↓, Izata D. ↑,
70', Leandro Alves ↓, Goba Zakpa ↑,
73', Oliveira F. ↓, Pepo ↑,
78', 2 - 3, Goba Zakpa ⚽, Ngom A. (A),
79', 🟨,
82', Clemente D. ↓, Fernandes D. ↑,
82', Nando ↓, Vieira J. ↑,
83', Matos R. ↓, Maiga Y. ↑,
84', Silva J. ↓, Ferreira J. ↑,
85', 3 - 3, Chaves G. ⚽,
89', 🟨,

Preview

A tightly contested fixture between two evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 7th in the Liga 3 (Relegation Group: ) and 4th in the Promotion - Liga 3 (Promotion Group: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Caldas won 0.

Mafra is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).

Mafra may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Mafra has enjoyed a sequence of home fixtures.

In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.

In the last 6 head-to-head meetings, Caldas has recorded 0 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with a goal aggregate of 7:13 (averaging 1.2:2.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Caldas against this opponent, the record stands at 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss, with 3:5 goals (averaging 1:1.7 per game).

Last Results with these Odds

Mafra - the odds 3.39 are the expected chance of winning is 26.75%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- SC Caldas
Portuguese Liga 3
11.10.26	Atlético CP - Caldas	4:1 ✺
13.09.26	Caldas - Vitória de Sernache	2:0 ✺
04.09.26	União de Santarém - Caldas	0:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
30.08.26	Caldas - Sintrense	1:3 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
16.08.26	Caldas - Lusitano GC	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 LWWLT
- CD Mafra
Taça de Portugal
18.10.26	Mafra - Santa Clara	3:2 ET ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
11.10.26	Mafra - Belenenses	2:2 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.09.26	Mafra - Tirsense	3:2 penalties ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
12.09.26	Oliveirense - Mafra	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Mafra - Covilhã	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 25.9 WTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Portuguese Liga 3
03.01.26	Mafra - Caldas	4:2
28.09.25	Caldas - Mafra	1:1
Club Friendly
27.07.24	Caldas - Mafra	0:2
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
18.02.18	Caldas - Mafra	2:2
08.10.17	Mafra - Caldas	1:0
05.03.17	Mafra - Caldas	3:2

Caldas - Mafra