Match Info

Taça de Portugal - 1/16-finals

Date: 23 November 2025, Sunday

Location: Estádio João Cardoso (Tondela)

Where to Watch on TV:


Portugal	Canal 11


	Tondela		Caldas

	1	X	2
	1.3	4.5	8.5
	1.32	4.95	7.9
	1.41	4.31	7.04	Watch
	1.31	5.1	8.75	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.34 ↓ (1.36)	4.72 ↓ (4.82)	8.05 ↑ (6.92)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tondela
69%

Draw
19.5%

Caldas
11.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

67.7%

19.1%

13.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.1%

17.5%

14.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tondela has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Caldas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tondela than the current prediction. (-6.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tondela that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caldas than the current prediction. (+3.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
75%	0%	25%

Tondela - Caldas Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Tondela will win (votes: 3 - 75%). Caldas will win (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Canizares L. (G) 5. Afonso J. (C) 17. Cavaleiro I. 79. Felix H. 4. Marques C. 60. Maviram E. 20. Medina B. 7. Pedro Maranhao 32. Rodriguez J. 16. Rony Lopes 15. Sithole S.	12. Almeida D. (G) 7. Alexandre R. 66. Carreira R. 8. Clemente D. 87. Ewandro Santos 79. Gata J. 14. Maneta D. 5. Pepo 4. Pipo 3. Pires Gomes J. R. 33. Tarzan

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)
59', Pepo 🟨,
65', Gata J. ↓, Velosa M. ↑,
67', 🟨,
72', Marques C. ↓, Hodge J. ↑,
80', Alexandre R. ↓, Januario ↑,
Extra Time (0 - 0)
116', Pepo ↓, Goncas ↑,
120+3', Pipo 🟨,
Penalties (5 - 6)
1, (Pen),
1, (Pen),
2, (Pen),
2, (Pen),
3, (Pen),
3, (Pen),
4, (Pen),
4, (Pen),
5, (Pen),
5, (Pen),
6, (Pen),
6, (Pen),

Preview

Tondela has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Caldas is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Caldas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Tondela is the clear favorite.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Tondela
Liga Portugal
08.11.25	Tondela - Vitoria Guimarães	0:1 ✺
02.11.25	AVS - Tondela	2:2 ✺
Portuguese League Cup
29.10.25	Benfica - Tondela	3:0 ✺
Liga Portugal
26.10.25	Tondela - Sporting Lisbon	0:3 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	Vila Real - Tondela	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.7 LTLLW
- SC Caldas
Portuguese Liga 3
09.11.25	Covilhã - Caldas	2:1 ✺
01.11.25	Académica Coimbra - Caldas	0:0 ✺
26.10.25	Caldas - Lusitano GC	2:1 ✺
Taça de Portugal
19.10.25	Caldas - Mirandela	1:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
04.10.25	Belenenses - Caldas	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.7 LTWWW

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