Match Info

League Two - Round 11

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Abbey Stadium (Cambridge)

Referee: Barlow M. (Eng)


	Cambridge United		Crawley Town

	1	X	2
	1.66	3.6	4.75
	1.77	3.6	4.33
	1.72	3.7	4.45
	1.75	3.8	4.66
	1.32	4.67	9.91	Watch
	1.7	3.92	4.37	Watch
	1.68	3.7	4.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.66 ↓ (1.8)	3.86 ↑ (3.56)	5.28 ↑ (4.2)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cambridge United
57.4%

Draw
24.7%

Crawley Town
18%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

51.7%

26.2%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.4%

26.6%

21.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cambridge United has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cambridge United's performance.

Crawley Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cambridge United than the current prediction. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (+3.9%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Cambridge United - Crawley Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Cambridge (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Cambridge United will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Eastwood J. (G) 22. Bradshaw Z. 5. Morrison M. (C) 6. Watts K. 26. Gibbons J. 17. Mpanzu P. 21. McLoughlin S. 20. Kouassi K. 15. Mayor A. 7. Brophy J. 19. Lavery S.	34. Wollacott J. (G) 5. Barker C. 3. Conroy D. (C) 28. Flint J. 19. Pereira D. 8. Holohan G. 4. Bajrami G. 7. Forster H. 17. Scott K. 21. Dixon K. 13. McKirdy H.
Substitutes
2. Bennett L. 25. Hughes B. (G) 23. Jobe M. 10. Kachunga E. 14. Knight B. 3. Purrington B. 8. Smith K.	6. Anderson M. 10. Brown R. 14. Flower L. 2. Malone S. 11. Roles J. 9. Tshimanga K.
Coaches
Harris N.	Lindsey S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
6', Holohan G. 🟨,
13', 1 - 0, Lavery S. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Forster H. ↓, Roles J. ↑,
49', Barker C. 🟨,
50', 2 - 0, Mpanzu P. ⚽,
55', Dixon K. ↓, Tshimanga K. ↑,
57', 3 - 0, Kouassi K. ⚽, Brophy J. (A),
66', 3 - 1, Tshimanga K. ⚽,
72', Scott K. 🟨,
74', Lavery S. ↓, Smith K. ↑,
75', Scott K. ↓, Brown R. ↑,
79', Brophy J. ↓, Knight B. ↑,
80', Mayor A. ↓, Bennett L. ↑,
87', Brown R. 🟨,
88', Bennett L. 🟨,
90+2', Roles J. 🟨,
90+2', Eastwood J. 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 10 and 21).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cambridge won 3.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Crawley may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Cambridge is the team to beat.

There will not play in Cambridge: Appere L. (Injury)

There are questionable in Crawley: Adeyemo A. (Injury) Cashman D. (Injury)

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Cambridge won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 19:16. (average 1.4:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Cambridge won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 12:8. (average 1.7:1.1).

Last Results with these Odds

Crawley Town - the odds 4.2 are the expected chance of winning is 22.17%, but this team recently wins 10% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cambridge United
English League Two
27.09.25	Tranmere Rovers - Cambridge United	0:0 ✺
English League Cup
23.09.25	Fulham - Cambridge United	1:0 ✺
English League Two
20.09.25	Cambridge United - Fleetwood Town	2:1 ✺
13.09.25	Grimsby Town - Cambridge United	1:1 ✺
06.09.25	Cambridge United - Oldham Athletic	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.7 TLWTL
- Crawley Town
English League Two
27.09.25	Crawley Town - Barrow	1:2 ✺
20.09.25	Notts County - Crawley Town	4:0 ✺
English EFL Trophy
16.09.25	Crawley Town - Aston Villa U21	4:2 ✺
English League Two
13.09.25	Crawley Town - Cheltenham Town	2:0 ✺
06.09.25	Harrogate Town - Crawley Town	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LLWWW

Latest Head to Head

English League One
01.03.25	Crawley Town - Cambridge United	0:2
17.08.24	Cambridge United - Crawley Town	0:1
English League Two
30.01.21	Cambridge United - Crawley Town	3:1
31.10.20	Crawley Town - Cambridge United	2:1
02.11.19	Cambridge United - Crawley Town	2:1
26.12.18	Cambridge United - Crawley Town	2:1
06.10.18	Crawley Town - Cambridge United	2:0

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