Match Info

League Two - Round 7

Date: 6 September 2025, Saturday

Location: Exercise Stadium (Harrogate)

Referee: Parsons T. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


United-kingdom	Sky Sports+


	Harrogate Town		Crawley Town

	1	X	2
	2.65	3.4	2.4
	2.6	3.4	2.5
	2.68	3.45	2.48
	2.77	3.51	2.52
	2.69	3.21	2.55	Watch
	2.6	3.2	2.6
	2.64	3.42	2.51	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.66 ↑ (2.32)	3.37 ↓ (3.39)	2.51 ↓ (2.91)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Harrogate Town
35.1%

Draw
27.7%

Crawley Town
37.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.3%

27.6%

32.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.2%

26.8%

33%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Harrogate Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Harrogate Town's form might have worsened.

Crawley Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Crawley Town's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Harrogate Town than the current prediction. (+4.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Crawley Town than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	22.2%	33.3%

Harrogate Town - Crawley Town Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Harrogate will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Crawley will win (votes: 3 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Harrogate: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Harrogate (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.5 - Harrogate (2.59) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH 0 - Crawley (1.85) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Harrogate (votes: 3 - 75%). Crawley (votes: 1 - 25%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
31. Belshaw J. (G) 24. Cass L. 15. O'Connor A. (C) 20. Faulkner B. 6. Burrell W. 8. Morris B. 4. Evans J. 21. Taylor E. 22. Smith R. 11. Duke-McKenna S. 9. McCoulsky S.	1. Davies H. (G) 3. Conroy D. (C) 28. Flint J. 5. Barker C. 22. Adeyemo A. 17. Scott K. 4. Bajrami G. 19. Pereira D. 10. Brown R. 21. Loft R. 13. McKirdy H.
Substitutes
2. Asare Z. 10. Bennett M. 5. Bradbury T. 27. Fox B. 14. McAleny C. 18. Muldoon J. 1. Oxley M. (G)	6. Anderson M. 7. Forster H. 8. Holohan G. 33. Malone S. 11. Roles J. 9. Tshimanga K.
Coaches
Weaver S.	Lindsey S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
42', 0 - 1, Brown R. ⚽, Pereira D. (A),
45+3', Barker C. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Adeyemo A. ↓, Forster H. ↑,
66', Loft R. 🟨,
66', Scott K. ↓, Holohan G. ↑,
76', Pereira D. ↓, Malone S. ↑,
76', Bajrami G. ↓, Anderson M. ↑,
78', McCoulsky S. ↓, Muldoon J. ↑,
78', Taylor E. ↓, McAleny C. ↑,
79', Conroy D. 🟨,
81', Morris B. ↓, Fox B. ↑,
82', Brown R. 🟨,
90+1', Loft R. 🟨,
90+5', McKirdy H. ↓, Tshimanga K. ↑,
90+6', Burrell W. 🟨,

Preview

A meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will take place in this match (ranked 14 and 22).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Harrogate won 0.

The current form of both teams is below expectations.

The chances of victory for both teams are nearly identical in this match.

There will not play in Harrogate: Gibson L. (Inactive) Thomson G. (Inactive)

There are questionable in Harrogate: Sutton L. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Harrogate won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 10:14. (average 1.3:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Harrogate won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 3:6. (average 0.8:1.5).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Harrogate Town
English League Two
30.08.25	Bromley - Harrogate Town	2:0 ✺
23.08.25	Harrogate Town - Chesterfield	1:2 ✺
19.08.25	Harrogate Town - Barrow	1:0 ✺
16.08.25	Cambridge United - Harrogate Town	1:1 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	Harrogate Town - Lincoln City	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 LLWTL
- Crawley Town
English League Two
30.08.25	Chesterfield - Crawley Town	2:2 ✺
23.08.25	Crawley Town - Tranmere Rovers	0:2 ✺
19.08.25	Crawley Town - Milton Keynes Dons	1:1 ✺
16.08.25	Crewe Alexandra - Crawley Town	1:0 ✺
English League Cup
12.08.25	Swansea City - Crawley Town	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.4 TLTLL

Latest Head to Head

English League Two
09.03.24	Harrogate Town - Crawley Town	1:2
25.11.23	Crawley Town - Harrogate Town	2:1
11.03.23	Crawley Town - Harrogate Town	3:1
13.08.22	Harrogate Town - Crawley Town	0:0
08.02.22	Harrogate Town - Crawley Town	1:3
21.09.21	Crawley Town - Harrogate Town	2:2
06.02.21	Crawley Town - Harrogate Town	1:3

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