Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 6

Date: 27 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Andrés Quintana Roo (Cancún)

Referee: Delgadillo Franco O. (Mex)


	Cancún		Atlético La Paz

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.25	3.30	2.65
	2.22	3.35	2.8	Watch
	2.34	3.71	2.89
	2.28	3.68	2.83	Watch
	2.25	3.6	2.8
	2.23	3.38	2.82	Watch
	2.23	3.4	2.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.26 ↑ (2.21)	3.49 ↑ (3.47)	2.8 ↓ (3.03)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cancún
40.8%

Draw
26.4%

Atlético La Paz
32.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.3%

26.9%

30.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.2%

26.2%

31.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cancún has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.5%)

Atlético La Paz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cancún than the current prediction. (+0.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético La Paz than the current prediction. (-1.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	33.3%	16.7%

Cancún - Atlético La Paz Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Cancún will win (votes: 3 - 50%). Atlético La Paz will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Arce E. (G) 16. Lomeli D. 15. Guillen D. 22. Echevarria U. 7. El-mesmari B. 8. Melendre F. 10. Uscanga P. (C) 5. Chavez A. 14. Campos K. 11. Trejo C. 12. Rodriguez J.	33. Alcala G. (G) 21. Robles C. 15. Torres H. 28. Zurita Jimenez U. 25. Illescas F. 5. Torres E. 30. Robles A. 77. Alonzo J. 12. Millan O. 19. Jaimes U. 10. Barragan M. (C)
Substitutes
2. Alvarez A. 20. Arredondo A. 9. Gigena T. 136. Hernandez B. 3. Hernandez J. 17. Lopez L. 18. Montiel Herrera E. A. (G) 19. Preciado G. 139. Salaya De La Cruz C. 24. Vela C.	17. Chiu L. 16. Del Aguila Y. 23. Estrada J. (G) 9. Ferrer J. 6. Hernandez D. 18. Larios I. 2. Vazquez S.
Coaches
Bravo M.	Castillo H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
13', 0 - 1, Jaimes U. ⚽, Millan O. (A),
16', 0 - 2, Jaimes U. ⚽, Illescas F. (A),
21', Jaimes U. 🟨,
22', Guillen D. 🟨,
31', Barragan M. 🟨,
32', Illescas F. 🟨,
36', Melendre F. 🟨,
37', Torres H. 🟥,
42', Robles A. ↓, Del Aguila Y. ↑,
43', Echevarria U. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Lomeli D. ↓, Gigena T. ↑,
46', Chavez A. ↓, Arredondo A. ↑,
60', Uscanga P. ↓, Lopez L. ↑,
60', Melendre F. ↓, Preciado G. ↑,
61', El-mesmari B. ↓, Alvarez A. ↑,
61', Jaimes U. ↓, Vazquez S. ↑,
61', Millan O. ↓, Chiu L. ↑,
69', Alonzo J. ↓, Hernandez D. ↑,
69', Barragan M. ↓, Ferrer J. ↑,
70', Del Aguila Y. 🟨,
77', 1 - 2, Rodriguez J. ⚽, Campos K. (A),
90+10', Hernandez D. 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 and 7 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Cancún won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Cancún will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Cancún won 4 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 18:9. (average 2.3:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Cancún won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 9:4. (average 2.3:1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Atletico La Paz	11	6	2	3	24:13	11	20
7	Cancun	11	5	2	4	19:15	4	17

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cancún FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
22.08.26	Piratas de Veracruz - Cancún	0:1 ✺
15.08.26	Cancún - Alacranes de Durango	2:0 ✺
08.08.26	Atlético Morelia - Cancún	4:1 ✺
01.08.26	Cancún - Leones Negros UdeG	0:2 ✺
Club Friendly
04.07.26	Cancún - UNAM	0:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 WWLLL
- Atlético La Paz
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
21.08.26	Atlético La Paz - Cruz Azul Hidalgo	1:1 ✺
14.08.26	Atlético La Paz - Piratas de Veracruz	2:0 ✺
07.08.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético La Paz	0:5 ✺
31.07.26	Atlético La Paz - Alacranes de Durango	0:1 ✺
25.07.26	Atlético Morelia - Atlético La Paz	4:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 TWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
14.03.26	Cancún - Atlético La Paz	1:1
03.10.25	Atlético La Paz - Cancún	2:4
19.04.25	Cancún - Atlético La Paz	4:1
01.11.24	Atlético La Paz - Cancún	1:1
02.03.24	Cancún - Atlético La Paz	2:2
13.09.23	Atlético La Paz - Cancún	1:4
15.02.23	Atlético La Paz - Cancún	1:0

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