Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 1

Date: 25 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Morelos (Morelia)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Atlético Morelia		Atlético La Paz

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.63	3.60	4.20
	1.73	3.70	4.20	Watch
	1.65	4.07	5.06
	1.78	3.82	4.18	Watch
	1.62	4.00	4.90
	1.66	3.89	4.74	Watch
	1.65	3.70	4.40
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.67 ↓ (1.75)	3.83 ↑ (3.64)	4.53 ↑ (4.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Atlético Morelia
55.3%

Draw
24.2%

Atlético La Paz
20.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

52.5%

25.2%

22.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Atlético Morelia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.8%)

Atlético La Paz has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Atlético Morelia - Atlético La Paz Predictions

Users Predictions: 3 users predict this event. Atlético Morelia will win (votes: 2 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Pasquel Colin R. (G) 5. Van Rankin J. 13. Andrade A. 3. Hernandez S. 20. Aguilar D. 8. Martinez J. 16. Sandoval R. 17. Nambo M. 10. Dominguez M. 9. del Campo R. 11. Lopez V.	33. Alcala G. (G) 28. Zurita Jimenez U. 15. Torres H. 21. Robles C. 2. Vazquez S. 12. Millan O. 20. Garcia M. 25. Illescas F. 77. Alonzo J. 10. Barragan M. 30. Robles A.
Substitutes
15. Botello O. 21. Castellanos E. 30. Conejo J. 6. De Buen D. 28. Flores A. 12. Fuentes Lugo D. (G) 2. Lopez Aburto R. 7. Romero P. 35. Sanchez Cruz E. S. 4. Zamora D.	3. Alvarado D. 17. Chiu L. 23. Estrada J. (G) 9. Ferrer J. 6. Hernandez D. 19. Jaimes U. 18. Larios I. 11. Renteria R. 5. Torres E.
Coaches
Ortiz M.	Castillo H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
15', Van Rankin J. 🟨,
34', Dominguez M. ↓, Lopez Aburto R. ↑,
38', 0 - 1, Robles A. ⚽, Zurita Jimenez U. (A),
39', Robles C. 🟨,
40', Robles A. 🟥,
45+4', 0 - 2, Barragan M. ⚽,
2nd Half (4 - 0)
46', Sandoval R. ↓, Castellanos E. ↑,
46', Hernandez S. ↓, Flores A. ↑,
49', Andrade A. 🟥,
51', Robles C. 🟨,
53', Millan O. ↓, Alvarado D. ↑,
55', Lopez V. ↓, Romero P. ↑,
56', 1 - 2, Flores A. ⚽, Nambo M. (A),
58', 2 - 2, Lopez Aburto R. ⚽, Van Rankin J. (A),
65', Barragan M. ↓, Ferrer J. ↑,
65', Alonzo J. ↓, Larios I. ↑,
68', 3 - 2, del Campo R. (Penalty Awarded),
74', Garcia M. ↓, Torres E. ↑,
74', Illescas F. ↓, Hernandez D. ↑,
83', del Campo R. ↓, Esqueda D. ↑,
88', 4 - 2, Flores A. ⚽,
90+1', Alcala G. 🟨,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Atlético Morelia won 3.

In this match, Atlético Morelia is the team to beat.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Atlético Morelia won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:10. (average 2:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Atlético Morelia won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 11:3. (average 2.8:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Atl. Morelia	11	7	1	3	21:12	9	22
3	Atletico La Paz	11	6	2	3	24:13	11	20

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Atlético Morelia
Club Friendly
04.07.26	Atlético Morelia - Cruz Azul	3:3 ✺
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
25.04.26	Atlético Morelia - Mineros de Zacatecas	2:0 ✺
22.04.26	Mineros de Zacatecas - Atlético Morelia	3:0 ✺
19.04.26	Jaiba Brava - Atlético Morelia	1:0 ✺
11.04.26	Atlético Morelia - Tlaxcala	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.3 TWLLT
- Atlético La Paz
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
25.04.26	Atlético La Paz - Jaiba Brava	1:2 ✺
22.04.26	Jaiba Brava - Atlético La Paz	2:0 ✺
17.04.26	Atlante - Atlético La Paz	1:1 ✺
10.04.26	Atlético La Paz - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:1 ✺
03.04.26	Irapuato - Atlético La Paz	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LLTTL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
28.02.26	Atlético Morelia - Atlético La Paz	1:0
19.09.25	Atlético La Paz - Atlético Morelia	3:0
15.03.25	Atlético Morelia - Atlético La Paz	4:1
27.09.24	Atlético La Paz - Atlético Morelia	0:1
09.01.24	Atlético La Paz - Atlético Morelia	1:1
10.09.23	Atlético Morelia - Atlético La Paz	2:0
19.01.23	Atlético La Paz - Atlético Morelia	3:3

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