Match Info

Liga de Expansion MX - Apertura - Round 3

Date: 7 August 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Gregorio "Tepa" Gómez (Tepatitlán)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	AYM Sports
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Tepatitlán de Morelos		Atlético La Paz

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.05	3.30	2.95
	2.12	3.35	3.20	Watch
	2.25	3.53	3.19
	2.14	3.5	3.21	Watch
	2.18	3.45	3.15
	2.12	3.28	3.10	Watch
	2.11	3.40	3.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.14 ↑ (1.66)	3.4 ↓ (3.64)	3.12 ↓ (4.62)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tepatitlán de Morelos
43.2%

Draw
27.2%

Atlético La Paz
29.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.1%

25.1%

19.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tepatitlán de Morelos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Tepatitlán de Morelos's form might have worsened.

Atlético La Paz has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Atlético La Paz's recent form is better than expected.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
50%	0%	50%

Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético La Paz Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Tepatitlán will win (votes: 2 - 50%). Atlético La Paz will win (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Estrada A. (G) 21. Zavala M. 24. Valencia V. 19. Castaneda S. 34. Henestrosa J. 18. Martinez E. 20. Ortega E. 28. Lopez M. 12. Rodriguez S. (C) 32. Arevalo T. 17. Gonzalez S.	33. Alcala G. (G) 28. Zurita Jimenez U. 5. Torres E. 21. Robles C. 16. Del Aguila Y. 25. Illescas F. 20. Garcia M. 77. Alonzo J. 30. Robles A. 10. Barragan M. (C) 12. Millan O.
Substitutes
4. Alonso R. 27. Avila H. 31. Casas B. 30. Gatica A. (G) 25. Moreno A. 11. Olvera G. 9. Paez L. 14. Rios J. 22. Sanguinetti F. 5. Villalpando D.	3. Alvarado D. 17. Chiu L. 23. Estrada J. (G) 9. Ferrer J. 6. Hernandez D. 19. Jaimes U. 18. Larios I. 11. Renteria R. 2. Vazquez S.
Coaches
Bartolotta D.	Castillo H.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
14', Rodriguez S. 🟨,
29', Castaneda S. 🟨,
31', 0 - 1, Barragan M. (Penalty Awarded),
43', 0 - 2, Barragan M. ⚽, Millan O. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 3)
46', Arevalo T. ↓, Avila H. ↑,
46', Valencia V. ↓, Alonso R. ↑,
48', Alonso R. 🟨,
50', Zavala M. 🟥,
51', Gonzalez S. ↓, Paez L. ↑,
52', Lopez M. 🟨,
55', Rodriguez S. ↓, Villalpando D. ↑,
58', 0 - 3, Torres E. ⚽,
63', Lopez M. ↓, Rios J. ↑,
65', Millan O. ↓, Hernandez D. ↑,
65', Illescas F. ↓, Ferrer J. ↑,
70', Del Aguila Y. 🟨,
71', Del Aguila Y. ↓, Vazquez S. ↑,
73', 0 - 4, Robles A. ⚽,
77', Alonzo J. ↓, Chiu L. ↑,
78', Barragan M. ↓, Jaimes U. ↑,
86', Henestrosa J. 🟨,
90+2', 0 - 5, Ferrer J. ⚽, Garcia M. (A),

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tepatitlán won 2.

Tepatitlán is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Tepatitlán won 4 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 18:8. (average 2.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Tepatitlán won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 11:2. (average 2.8:0.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Atletico La Paz	11	6	2	3	24:13	11	20
16	Tepatitlan de Morelos	10	2	0	8	8:29	-21	6

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tepatitlán de Morelos
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
31.07.26	Correcaminos UAT - Tepatitlán de Morelos	3:1 ✺
24.07.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Alacranes de Durango	0:1 ✺
30.05.26	Jaiba Brava - Tepatitlán de Morelos	4:3 penalties ✺
23.05.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Jaiba Brava	3:1 ✺
16.05.26	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Jaiba Brava	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.8 LLLWW
- Atlético La Paz
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
31.07.26	Atlético La Paz - Alacranes de Durango	0:1 ✺
25.07.26	Atlético Morelia - Atlético La Paz	4:2 ✺
25.04.26	Atlético La Paz - Jaiba Brava	1:2 ✺
22.04.26	Jaiba Brava - Atlético La Paz	2:0 ✺
17.04.26	Atlante - Atlético La Paz	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.9 LLLLT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
10.04.26	Atlético La Paz - Tepatitlán de Morelos	1:1
01.11.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético La Paz	0:1
21.03.25	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético La Paz	4:1
04.10.24	Atlético La Paz - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:5
23.01.24	Atlético La Paz - Tepatitlán de Morelos	2:0
05.10.23	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético La Paz	4:0
15.01.23	Tepatitlán de Morelos - Atlético La Paz	3:0

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