Match Info

PORTUGAL: LIGA 3 - ROUND 7

Date: 1 October 2023, Sunday


	Canelas		Lusitânia

	1	X	2
	2.85	3.2	2.2
	2.9	3.3	2.2
	3.26	3.38	2.26
	3.3	3.3	2.02
	2.9	3.25	2.23
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.04 ↑ (2.22)	3.29 ↑ (3.1)	2.18 ↓ (3.06)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Canelas
30.1%

Draw
27.9%

Lusitânia
42%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41%

29.3%

29.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

28.4%

28.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Canelas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Canelas's form might have worsened.

Lusitânia has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Lusitânia's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Canelas than the current prediction. (+12.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Canelas, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Lusitânia than the current prediction. (-13.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Lusitânia, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
80. Miguel B. (G) 13. dos Santos Simao L. P. 3. Bastos V. 4. Carvalho A. 23. Emanuel 30. Santos D. M. 8. Samu 10. Sousa C. 6. Luan 28. Tank A. 90. Gabriel Tigrao	33. Costa J. (G) 4. Morais B. 14. Valente M. (C) 3. Lytvyn D. 70. Gomes C. 6. Martins H. 18. Pereira D. 12. Cerveira T. 11. Kalunga K. 19. Fortes F. 7. Borges M.
Substitutes
14. Doukoure H. 88. Leite R. 2. Lixa G. 98. Lourenco O. 1. Matos J. (G) 20. Ribeiro F. 66. Soares J. 11. Sousa A. 18. Vinicius	66. Bamba Y. 22. Faria B. 20. Faria R. 17. Goncalves R. 23. Marco (G) 5. Nandinho 21. Pereira M. 10. Rosado D. 9. Silva Nhaga I.

Preview

A game will be played between two neighbours in a tournament table (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: ) and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 3 (Promotion Group: )).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Canelas won 2.

Both teams are now playing unstable.

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Canelas won 3 matches, drawn 5 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 6-4.

Including matches at home between the teams Canelas won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 5-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CF Canelas 2010
Taça de Portugal
24.09.23	Canelas - Fontinhas	5:0 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
16.09.23	Varzim - Canelas	1:1 ✺
03.09.23	Canelas - Vianense	2:1 ✺
27.08.23	Braga B - Canelas	1:0 ✺
20.08.23	Canelas - Felgueiras	0:8 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.4 WTWLL
- Lusitânia FC
Taça de Portugal
24.09.23	Lusitânia - Académico de Viseu	1:2 ✺
Portuguese Liga 3
16.09.23	Lusitânia - Trofense	1:1 ✺
03.09.23	Fafe - Lusitânia	0:3 ✺
25.08.23	Varzim - Lusitânia	3:0 ✺
19.08.23	Lusitânia - Vianense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LTWLW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
15.07.23	Canelas - Lusitânia	1:0
Portuguese Liga 3
01.05.22	Canelas - Lusitânia	0:0
09.04.22	Lusitânia - Canelas	1:0
05.02.22	Lusitânia - Canelas	1:1
30.10.21	Canelas - Lusitânia	1:0
Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
16.05.21	Lusitânia - Canelas	0:0
26.04.21	Canelas - Lusitânia	1:1

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