Match Info

CHINA: Super League - Round 8

Date: 26 April 2024, Friday

Location: Yutong International Sports Center (Shijiazhuang)


	Cangzhou Mighty Lions		Henan Songshan Longmen

	1	X	2
	4	3.8	1.85	Watch
	4	3.75	1.72
	2.45	3.4	2.7	Watch
	4.17	3.9	1.84
	3.81	3.76	1.91
	4.6	4	1.57
	4.19	4.02	1.79	Watch
	4.5	3.7	1.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.97 ↑ (2.4)	3.79 ↑ (3.37)	1.89 ↓ (2.86)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cangzhou Mighty Lions
24.1%

Draw
25.2%

Henan Songshan Longmen
50.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.3%

27.9%

32.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

38.9%

28.2%

33.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cangzhou Mighty Lions has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-15.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Cangzhou Mighty Lions's form might have worsened.

Henan Songshan Longmen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+17.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Henan Songshan Longmen's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cangzhou Mighty Lions than the current prediction. (+14.8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Cangzhou Mighty Lions, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Henan Songshan Longmen than the current prediction. (-17.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Henan Songshan Longmen, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
13%	26.1%	60.9%

Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Henan Songshan Longmen Predictions

Users Predictions: 23 users predict this event. Cangzhou will win (votes: 3 - 13%). Henan Jianye will win (votes: 14 - 60.9%). It will Tie (votes: 6 - 26.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Henan Jianye: 41% – 80.8%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
37. Dong Hang (G) 16. Zheng Kaimu 3. Sunzu S. 15. Wang Peng 17. Wen Da 8. Zhao Yingjie 19. Zhukov G. 13. Sun Qinhan 10. Taty Maritu O. 9. Heber 31. Solomon-Otabor V.	26. Xu Jiamin (G) 16. Yang Kuo 24. Li Songyi 36. Iago Maidana 15. Liu Bin 8. Denic D. 6. Wang Shangyuan 22. Huang Ruifeng 11. Acheampong F. 40. Bruno Nazario 20. Covic N.
Substitutes
26. Guo Yunqi 29. Han Feng (G) 33. Hu Jiali 23. Li Hong 20. Liu Xinyu 27. Ma Fuyu 1. Sun Jianxiang (G) 32. Sun M. 11. Tudi Dilyimit 36. Yang Yun 18. Yao X. 7. Zheng Dalun	21. Chen Keqiang 9. Feng Boyuan 3. Gerbig O. 5. Gu Cao 29. Han Dong 10. Huang Zichang 23. Ke Zhao 27. Niu Ziyi 1. Shi Chenglong (G) 17. Wang Jinshuai (G) 13. Xu Haofeng 19. Yang Yilin
Coaches
Zhao Junzhe	Nam Ki-Il

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
33', 0 - 1, Acheampong F. ⚽, Liu Bin (A),
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Li Songyi ↓, Gu Cao ↑,
56', Wen Da ↓, Sun M. ↑,
59', Yang Kuo ↓, Xu Haofeng ↑,
62', Wang Shangyuan 🟨,
63', 1 - 1, Heber ⚽, Taty Maritu O. (A),
72', 2 - 1, Solomon-Otabor V. ⚽, Zhao Yingjie (A),
78', Huang Ruifeng ↓, Huang Zichang ↑,
78', Acheampong F. ↓, Yang Yilin ↑,
79', Sun Qinhan ↓, Yang Yun ↑,
79', 2 - 2, Iago Maidana ⚽, Bruno Nazario (A),
83', Liu Bin ↓, Ke Zhao ↑,
83', 2 - 3, Iago Maidana ⚽, Bruno Nazario (A),
88', Zheng Kaimu ↓, Zheng Dalun ↑,
90+2', Sunzu S. 🟨,
90+14', Wang Peng 🟨,

Preview

One of which is a team leader another one is from mid-table (ranked 4 and 10).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cangzhou won 0.

Cangzhou is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recent matches Henan Songshan Longmen is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

The possibility to win in this match is almost balanced for both teams.

Last 10 head-to-head matches Cangzhou won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 6-14.

Including matches at home between the teams Cangzhou won 1 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 2-3.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cangzhou Mighty Lions
Chinese Super League
20.04.24	Shandong Taishan - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	4:1 ✺
14.04.24	Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Qingdao West Coast	3:2 ✺
10.04.24	Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Changchun Yatai	2:0 ✺
04.04.24	Wuhan Three Towns - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	2:3 ✺
29.03.24	Shenzhen Peng City - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18 LWWWT
- Henan Songshan Longmen
Chinese Super League
21.04.24	Henan Songshan Longmen - Qingdao Hainiu	1:0 ✺
13.04.24	Henan Songshan Longmen - Nantong Zhiyun	1:1 ✺
09.04.24	Shandong Taishan - Henan Songshan Longmen	2:2 ✺
05.04.24	Henan Songshan Longmen - Shenzhen Peng City	0:2 ✺
30.03.24	Shanghai Port - Henan Songshan Longmen	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WTTLL

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Super League
21.10.23	Henan Songshan Longmen - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	6:0
28.06.23	Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Henan Songshan Longmen	0:1
15.12.22	Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Henan Songshan Longmen	1:1
24.10.22	Henan Songshan Longmen - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	3:0
27.07.21	Henan Songshan Longmen - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	2:1
27.04.21	Cangzhou Mighty Lions - Henan Songshan Longmen	0:0
23.10.16	Henan Songshan Longmen - Cangzhou Mighty Lions	0:2

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