Match Info

Tercera RFEF - Group 7 - Round 33

Date: 4 May 2025, Sunday


	Canillas		Alcalá

	1	X	2
	5.5	3.9	1.46
	5.8	4.1	1.46
	5.69	4.01	1.46
				Watch
	6.75	4.05	1.42
	5.8	4.1	1.46
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.91 ↓ (6.01)	4.03 ↓ (4.09)	1.45 ↓ (1.45)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Canillas
15.3%

Draw
22.4%

Alcalá
62.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

15.1%

22.2%

62.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

14.9%

21.9%

63.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Canillas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

Alcalá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Canillas than the current prediction. (-0.4%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Alcalá than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Canillas - Alcalá Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
38', 0 - 1, Sanchez P. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 4)
46', 0 - 2, Izan ⚽,
52', 0 - 3, Nieto D. ⚽,
62', 1 - 3, Chengue ⚽,
69', 1 - 4, Izan ⚽,
79', 1 - 5, Marcos S. ⚽,
84', 2 - 5, Pitu ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 17 in the zone Relegation and 1 in the zone Promotion).

Canillas is going through a poor run of results (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Alcalá's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Canillas may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Alcalá is the undisputed favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Canillas won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Canillas won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2. (average 1:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Canillas
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 7
27.04.25	Rayo Vallecano B - Canillas	3:2 ✺
17.04.25	Canillas - Leganés B	0:3 ✺
12.04.25	Tres Cantos - Canillas	3:0 ✺
06.04.25	Canillas - Carabanchel	0:0 ✺
29.03.25	El Álamo - Canillas	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.9 LLLTL
- RSD Alcalá
Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 7
26.04.25	Alcalá - Alcorcón B	0:4 ✺
20.04.25	Torrejón - Alcalá	1:1 ✺
13.04.25	Alcalá - Cala Pozuelo	3:0 ✺
06.04.25	Alcalá - Rayo Vallecano B	1:1 ✺
30.03.25	Leganés B - Alcalá	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LTWTT

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Tercera RFEF - Group 7
21.12.24	Alcalá - Canillas	1:1
17.03.24	Canillas - Alcalá	2:2
29.10.23	Alcalá - Canillas	1:2
09.04.23	Canillas - Alcalá	0:0
11.12.22	Alcalá - Canillas	1:0

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