Match Info

Copa Libertadores - Group Stage - Round 3

Date: 22 April 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Polideportivo Misael Delgado (Valencia)

Referee: Ortega C. (Col)

Where to Watch on TV:


Africa	StarTimes App, Startimes Sports Premium
Argentina	Disney+, FOX Sports 3
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA English 1, TOD
Australia	beIN Connect, beIN Sports 1
Brazil	Amazon Prime Video, Paramount+
Canada	beIN Connect
Colombia	ESPN 5
Indonesia	Mola TV
Israel	Sport 3
Italy	Como TV
Mexico	Disney+
Russia	Okko Sport
South-america	ESPN 5 South
Usa	beIN Connect, Fanatiz, Fubo Sports Network, Tubi TV
Venezuela	Inter
World	Disney+


	Carabobo		Universidad de Chile

	1	X	2
	4.5	3	1.95	Watch
	3.7	3	2.15
	4.35	3	2	Watch
	4.76	3.01	2.08
	4.54	3.11	1.97	Watch
	3.5	3	2.15	Watch
	4.57	3.05	1.98	Watch
	4.35	3	2
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.28 ↑ (3.59)	3.02 ↓ (3.11)	2.04 ↓ (2.19)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carabobo
22.1%

Draw
31.3%

Universidad de Chile
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

26.4%

30.5%

43.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

26.4%

30.5%

43.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carabobo has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.3%)

Universidad de Chile has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Carabobo than the current prediction. (+4.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Universidad de Chile than the current prediction. (-3.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
22.2%	22.2%	55.6%

Carabobo - Universidad de Chile Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Carabobo will win (votes: 2 - 22.2%). Universidad de Chile will win (votes: 5 - 55.6%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 22.2%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Universidad de Chile: 23.1% – 88.1%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
22. Bruera L. (C) 2. Guaramato M. 4. Aponte L. 27. Rodriguez N. 13. Pernia M. 5. Gonzalez G. 26. Nunez M. 8. Perez J. 7. Tortolero E. 14. Berrios J. 11. Canozales C.	25. Castellon G. (G) 5. Ramirez N. 2. Calderon F. 22. Zaldivia M. 17. Hormazabal F. 20. Aranguiz C. 21. Diaz M. (C) 16. Sepulveda M. 8. Poblete Zuniga I. E. 18. Di Yorio L. 11. Guerra N.
Substitutes
28. Bonilla P. 23. Congo J. 12. Garcia F. (G) 1. Gil D. (G) 9. Londono F. 16. Lopez F. 15. Mendoza S. 3. Osio D. 18. Ramos Rodriguez C. I. 99. Riasco J. 10. Robert Hernandez 21. Ruiz F.	19. Altamirano J. 4. Castro J. 27. Contreras R. 24. Diaz A. 9. Fernandez L. 6. Fernandez N. 26. Formiliano F. 12. Garrido P. (G) 7. Guerrero Pena M. G. 30. Montes G. 3. Tapia I. 1. Toselli C. (G)
Coaches
Merino D.	Alvarez G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
20', Calderon F. 🟨,
22', 1 - 0, Tortolero E. (Pen),
24', Zaldivia M. 🟨,
43', 1 - 1, Aranguiz C. (Pen),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Ramirez N. ↓, Guerrero Pena M. G. ↑,
46', Guerra N. ↓, Fernandez L. ↑,
46', Poblete Zuniga I. E. ↓, Altamirano J. ↑,
55', Hormazabal F. 🟨,
73', Diaz M. ↓, Montes G. ↑,
75', Tortolero E. ↓, Ramos Rodriguez C. I. ↑,
77', Di Yorio L. ↓, Contreras R. ↑,
82', Berrios J. ↓, Londono F. ↑,
88', Contreras R. 🟨,
89', Perez J. ↓, Lopez F. ↑,

Preview

Recent matches Carabobo is playing unstable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Universidad de Chile is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Universidad de Chile could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

Universidad de Chile will have a small advantage in this match.

There will not play in Carabobo: Martinez L. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Carabobo: Neira E. (Injury)

There are questionable in Universidad de Chile: Di Yorio L. (Injury)

Recently, the teams did not play each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Universidad de Chile - the odds 2.19 are the expected chance of winning is 43.17%, but this team recently wins 57% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carabobo FC
Venezuelan Primera Division
17.04.25	Deportivo La Guaira - Carabobo	0:0 ✺
13.04.25	Carabobo - Academia Anzoátegui	1:0 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.04.25	Botafogo RJ - Carabobo	2:0 ✺
Venezuelan Primera Division
05.04.25	Caracas - Carabobo	0:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
01.04.25	Carabobo - Estudiantes La Plata	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TWLWL
- Universidad de Chile
Chilean Primera Division
17.04.25	Universidad de Chile - Deportes La Serena	3:1 ✺
Copa Libertadores
08.04.25	Estudiantes La Plata - Universidad de Chile	1:2 ✺
Chilean Cup
05.04.25	Deportes Magallanes - Universidad de Chile	1:3 ✺
Copa Libertadores
02.04.25	Universidad de Chile - Botafogo RJ	1:0 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
27.03.25	Everton de Viña - Universidad de Chile	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.6 WWWWL

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