Match Info

Cymru South - Round 28

Date: 28 March 2026, Saturday


	Llantwit Major		Caerau Ely

	1	X	2
	4.25	4.05	1.58
	4.31	4.43	1.59
	4.4	4.18	1.66	Watch
	4.2	3.9	1.57
	4.53	4.18	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.34 ↑ (4.11)	4.15 ↓ (4.24)	1.61 ↓ (1.69)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Llantwit Major
21.1%

Draw
22%

Caerau Ely
56.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

22.7%

22%

55.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

21.8%

21.2%

57.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Llantwit Major has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.6%)

Caerau Ely has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Llantwit Major than the current prediction. (+0.7%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caerau Ely than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

Llantwit Major - Caerau Ely Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
37', 0 - 1, Gullick L. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
48', 1 - 1, Gauci C. ⚽,
54', 1 - 2, Griffiths D. ⚽,
62', 1 - 3, Evans K. (Own goal),
89', 1 - 4, Gullick L. ⚽,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 7 and 4).

In recent matches, Llantwit Major has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Caerau is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Caerau may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Caerau is a strong favorite.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Llantwit Major won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 8:9. (average 1.6:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Llantwit Major won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:4. (average 1:2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Caerau Ely	9	5	1	3	21:18	3	16
15	Llantwit Major	8	2	1	5	7:20	-13	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Llantwit Major FC
Welsh Cymru South
20.03.26	Afan Lido - Llantwit Major	4:1 ✺
14.03.26	Llantwit Major - Ammanford	2:3 ✺
10.03.26	Cwmbran Celtic - Llantwit Major	1:3 ✺
06.03.26	Pontypridd United - Llantwit Major	0:4 ✺
03.03.26	Llantwit Major - Treowen Stars	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 LLWWW
- Caerau Ely
Welsh Cymru South
21.03.26	Caerau Ely - Cwmbran Celtic	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Baglan Dragons - Caerau Ely	0:5 ✺
10.03.26	Caerau Ely - Treowen Stars	3:0 ✺
07.03.26	Caerau Ely - Afan Lido	4:1 ✺
01.03.26	Aberystwyth Town - Caerau Ely	0:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.2 TWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
12.09.25	Caerau Ely - Llantwit Major	0:0
05.04.25	Llantwit Major - Caerau Ely	1:0
07.02.25	Caerau Ely - Llantwit Major	2:4
02.02.24	Caerau Ely - Llantwit Major	3:2
30.09.23	Llantwit Major - Caerau Ely	1:4

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