Match Info

Cymru South - Round 29

Date: 4 April 2026, Saturday

Location: Richmond Park (Carmarthen)


	Carmarthen Town		Pontypridd United

	1	X	2
	1.52	4.25	4.65
	1.52	4.52	4.73
	1.59	4.15	5.04
	1.5	4	4.75
	1.65	4.42	4.21
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (1.85)	4.27 ↑ (3.9)	4.68 ↑ (3.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 6.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Carmarthen Town
58.9%

Draw
21.5%

Pontypridd United
19.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.2%

23.3%

27.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

50.9%

22.5%

26.6%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Carmarthen Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Carmarthen Town's performance.

Pontypridd United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-7.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Pontypridd United might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Carmarthen Town than the current prediction. (-8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Carmarthen Town that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pontypridd United than the current prediction. (+7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Pontypridd United could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Carmarthen Town - Pontypridd United Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
4', 0 - 1, Marsh T. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

One team leads the standings, the other sits mid-table (ranked 5 and 12).

Carmarthen Town is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

In recent matches, Pontypridd has shown inconsistent performance (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Pontypridd may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Carmarthen Town has had a series of away games.

In this match, Carmarthen Town is a strong favorite.

We predict that Carmarthen Town will win today's game, with odds of 1.53.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Carmarthen Town won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:9. (average 0.8:1.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Carmarthen Town won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 0:3. (average 0:1.5).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Pontypridd	9	6	1	2	23:16	7	19
6	Carmarthen Town	9	4	2	3	20:19	1	14

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Carmarthen Town
Welsh Cymru South
28.03.26	Baglan Dragons - Carmarthen Town	0:7 ✺
21.03.26	Carmarthen Town - Ynyshir Albions	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Cardiff Draconians - Carmarthen Town	2:3 ✺
06.03.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Carmarthen Town	4:5 ✺
01.03.26	Newport City - Carmarthen Town	4:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.7 WTWWT
- Pontypridd United
Welsh Cymru South
20.03.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Pontypridd United	4:2 ✺
17.03.26	Cwmbran Celtic - Pontypridd United	2:5 ✺
14.03.26	Treowen Stars - Pontypridd United	2:2 ✺
06.03.26	Pontypridd United - Llantwit Major	0:4 ✺
21.02.26	Pontypridd United - Baglan Dragons	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.6 LWTLW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
05.09.25	Pontypridd United - Carmarthen Town	3:1
07.03.25	Pontypridd United - Carmarthen Town	1:3
09.11.24	Carmarthen Town - Pontypridd United	0:1
Welsh League Cup
06.08.22	Pontypridd United - Carmarthen Town	2:0
Welsh Cymru South
30.04.22	Carmarthen Town - Pontypridd United	0:2

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