Match Info

Cymru South - Round 30

Date: 18 April 2026, Saturday

Location: USW Sports Park (Pontypridd)


	Pontypridd United		Caerau Ely

	1	X	2
	5.3	4.75	1.41
	4.38	5.54	1.43
	4.67	5.24	1.5	Watch
	5	4.8	1.4
	5.52	5.25	1.37
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.97 ↑ (4.72)	5.12 ↑ (5.04)	1.42 ↓ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 7.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Pontypridd United
18.3%

Draw
17.8%

Caerau Ely
63.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

19.2%

18%

62.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

18.6%

17.4%

65%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Pontypridd United has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.9%)

Caerau Ely has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Pontypridd United than the current prediction. (+0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Caerau Ely than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Pontypridd United - Caerau Ely Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:2

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 4).

In recent matches, Pontypridd has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Caerau is in great form and has won several matches in a row (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Caerau may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Pontypridd has had a series of away games.

In this match, Caerau is considered a favorite.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Pontypridd won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Including home match between the teams, Pontypridd won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:0.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Pontypridd	9	6	1	2	23:16	7	19
4	Caerau Ely	9	5	1	3	21:18	3	16

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Pontypridd United
Welsh Cymru South
11.04.26	Cardiff Draconians - Pontypridd United	2:2 ✺
04.04.26	Carmarthen Town - Pontypridd United	0:1 ✺
20.03.26	Trethomas Bluebirds - Pontypridd United	4:2 ✺
17.03.26	Cwmbran Celtic - Pontypridd United	2:5 ✺
14.03.26	Treowen Stars - Pontypridd United	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 TWLWT
- Caerau Ely
Welsh Cymru South
04.04.26	Caerau Ely - Ynyshir Albions	2:0 ✺
28.03.26	Llantwit Major - Caerau Ely	1:4 ✺
21.03.26	Caerau Ely - Cwmbran Celtic	0:0 ✺
14.03.26	Baglan Dragons - Caerau Ely	0:5 ✺
10.03.26	Caerau Ely - Treowen Stars	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6 WWTWW

Latest Head to Head

Welsh Cymru South
25.08.25	Caerau Ely - Pontypridd United	2:0
04.02.25	Caerau Ely - Pontypridd United	0:1
23.08.24	Pontypridd United - Caerau Ely	1:0

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